Early Sweet 16 Best Bets & Lines to Target – Duke Is an Absolute Wagon

• It’s time for us to get to work on the Sweet 16 bets for March Madness 2025
• By the time Thursday rolls around, many lines will move so we need to lock things in early
• See my favorite NCAA Tournament bets for the Sweet 16

Somehow, some way, the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament is already here. It seems like just yesterday that we were prepping for the round of 64 and now there are only 16 teams left. That’s crazy, but honestly, we had to know it was going to happen. That’s just how tournaments work. But instead of be sad, we need to be happy. We still have games to bet and, if we’re being honest, there’s a lot of value on the board right now.

Most people are sleeping at the wheel right now and are sure to wait until Thursday to bet these games. Not us. We’re going to lock in a few moves right now and enjoy all of the sweet, sweet CLV that goes with betting early. Feels right.

Early Sweet 16 Best Bets & Picks

Odds as of March 25 at FanDuel & DraftKings. Claim the FanDuel promo code to get a bonus for these college basketball games.

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Sweet 16 Pick #1: Bama Plays Basketball Too

Sometimes it tough for me to grasp that a school can be a “football school” as well as being a “basketball school” but it’s a thing. The first school that comes to mind when thinking about this is Alabama. They do both very well, probably better than any other school in the country right now.

But it’s March now, so football isn’t even on our minds. It’s basketball time and one thing we can be sure of is, Alabama is ready for the Sweet 16.

Sweet 16 prep has begun.#RollTide | #BlueCollarBasketball pic.twitter.com/GZhQaGJTyK

— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) March 25, 2025

The thing about Alabama is they run teams to death. We’re talking the fastest adjusted tempo in the entire country according to KenPom. Now pair that with the fourth best offense and we’re cooking with grease. Simply put, they’re a problem.

They’re going to see a BYU team that can score, but the issue with BYU is they don’t defend. They do the best they can, but they aren’t even top 70 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Alabama should have no problem scoring on these guys so 4.5 is a very easy number to cover. Id’ be shocked if we aren’t looking a -6 or higher for Bama by the time this game tips. Feels right.

• The Bet: Alabama -4.5 (-120) – FanDuel

Sweet 16 Pick #2: Duke Is an Absolute Wagon

This year the four #1 seeds are wagons. Obviously the one-seeds are always going to be good no matter what because they’re one-seeds but this year it feels like they’re all wagons. The first one that comes to mind is Duke since everyone and their brother has them winning the whole thing.

It’s not just talent on the floor though, they are well-coached as well.

1 of 4! 😈 @JonScheyer pic.twitter.com/zjcQTMdyPQ

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 24, 2025

Three of the four one-seeds have a Naismith Finalist for a coach so there is that. But watching Duke in the first two rounds, one thing that’s noticeable is coaching. Not only that, but Jon Scheyer went there so he has that Duke pedigree going for him as well.

Scheyer has led Duke to the best offense in the country according to KenPom but that’s not why I’m backing them Thursday. It’s the fact that they have the fourth-best defense in the country to go with that offense. That team is an absolute wagon, and firmly deserves its status as the outright favorite in the March Madness championship odds.

Now obviously Arizona is a good team but they just aren’t in Duke’s class. The Blue Devils already spanked them by 14 points back in November. If you’re thinking of backing Duke, you’ll need to do this now because -8.5 simply won’t last. By the time this thing tips, the Blue Devils will be favored by double-digits. Feels right.

• The Bet: Duke -8.5 (-120) – FanDuel