Duke’s March Madness Title Odds Improve After Wild Victory Over North Carolina

• Duke escaped with a two-point, overtime win over arch-rival North Carolina on the weekend
• The No. 7 Blue Devils, who are second in the ACC, are also second in the NCAA in title odds
• They are the only team that ranks among the top 10 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency

It’s amazing how a bounce, or a referee’s call or something else that represents a single moment in time can flip the script in college basketball.

Despite trailing by double-digits in the last five minutes of regulation on Saturday against unranked North Carolina — and having a win probability as low as 2.3 percent at one point — No. 7 Duke stormed back to beat its arch-rival and improve its 2020 March Madness odds.

Heading into the weekend, the Blue Devils had an average of +1300 title odds. A loss certainly would’ve taken a bite out of that, but now their average odds have improved to +1000 — and +800.

2020 National Championship Odds

Odds taken Feb. 11

The Great Escape

Saturday’s road thriller required some intentionally missed free throws, some questionable calls and two buzzer beaters. UNC had held a 77-64 lead just inside the five-minute mark and a 79-70 advantage with under two minutes to play.

TRE JONES FOR THE TIE pic.twitter.com/regjAhloAj

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) February 9, 2020

Somehow, incredibly, Duke came back.

To be fair, it’s not like the Blue Devils (21-3, 11-2 ACC) needed the win. They’re well on their way to a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. But who’s going to turn down a chance to break the hearts of a bitter rival?

WENDELL MOORE FOR THE WIN pic.twitter.com/Xn1q5Qtyt7

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) February 9, 2020

Blue Blood Status

In a vacuum, betting on Duke to win the national championship makes sense.

And it’s not just because they’re tied for the fourth-most titles in NCAA history (five). Duke can simply be counted on to make the tournament — and make some noise in it — year after year.

The Blue Devils are shoe-ins for this year’s tournament, which will be their 25th in a row. In the previous 24, they made at least the Sweet Sixteen on 17 occasions. In case that has to be spelled out for you, that’s absolutely bonkers.

“There’s the pass to Laettner…”

That’s Duke Basketball. #TBT pic.twitter.com/LTkPPYR5El

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) November 8, 2018

Duke also receives some of the nation’s most coveted recruits every year. The 2019 freshmen class ranked third in the country, according to 247Sports, and they haven’t been outside the top three since 2013.

Efficiently Alone

The Blue Devils have been largely dominant, outscoring opponents by an average of 17 points per game (and their three losses have been by a combined 15 points).

They also boast four players averaging 10-plus points and four players averaging four-plus rebounds.

First time we ever had a rebound at #1 #DukeMBBTop5 pic.twitter.com/S2RqnXmrsW

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) February 11, 2020

But what’s perhaps most impressive is their efficiency on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, Duke is ranked eighth in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency — the only school to rank in the top 10 in both prestigious categories.

Decision Time

So, should you pick Duke to win it all? Of course you should! Not because it’s anywhere near a guarantee (quite the opposite, actually), but because they have demonstrated this year and previously that they’re a championship-caliber program.

#DukeWins pic.twitter.com/yAR1ppxNmc

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) February 5, 2020

Of course, March Madness can get pretty crazy (hence the name). If you’re looking for a school with a greater risk/reward factor, consider Auburn (+2500). The Tigers reached the Final Four last year and are an impressive 21-2.