Duke vs North Carolina Prediction, Pick & Odds (Mar. 8)

• The #2 Duke Blue Devils visit the North Carolina Tar Heels in a rivalry showdown
• Duke is a 9.5-point road favorite over UNC
• Read on for our Duke vs UNC picks, predictions, and latest odds for March 8th

One of the best rivalries in sports resumes on Saturday, March 8th as the #2 ranked Duke Blue Devils (27-3, 18-1 ACC) visit the North Carolina Tar Heels (20-11, 13-6 ACC) at the Dean E. Smith Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:30 pm ET on ESPN in this highly anticipated ACC regular-season finale.

Duke has already clinched at least a share of the ACC regular season title, while UNC is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Tar Heels likely need a win to feel good about their at-large chances heading into the ACC Tournament.

UNC is currently among the “First Four Out” in most March Madness brackets, which is factored into our Saturday college basketball prediction.

Duke vs UNC Prediction

Duke won the first meeting against UNC this season in dominant fashion, 87-70, at home on February 1st. The Blue Devils led by as many as 32 points in the second half before emptying the bench. Since that game, Duke has won seven straight by an average of 30.4 points.

The Blue Devils are led by National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg, who paces the team in points (19.6), rebounds (7.5), assists (4.2), steals (1.6) and blocks (1.2) per game.

UNC has won six in a row to build some momentum, but the Tar Heels were just 3-10 in Quad 1 games before this winning streak, per CBS. Their best wins came against bubble teams like Michigan and Ohio State. The Heels lost to Clemson by 20 points the last time they played a top-50 KenPom opponent.

The Tar Heels are shooting a blistering 47.8% from three over their last six games, but that’s come against defenses that rank outside the top 100 in efficiency. Duke’s fourth-ranked unit should provide much stiffer resistance. With elite length and athleticism on the perimeter, the Blue Devils are holding opponents to just 35.3% from deep this season.

Duke’s twin tower frontcourt of Flagg and 6’11 center Khlama Maluach is a tough matchup for UNC’s undersized bigs. The Blue Devils rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. They outrebounded the Heels 39-26 in the first meeting and could dominate the glass once again. UNC big man Jae’lyn Withers will have his hands full trying to keep those two off the boards.

KenPom projects Duke as 11-point favorites in this matchup, with a 82-71 predicted score. The Blue Devils’ interior advantage, rebounding edge and ability to take away the three-point line make this a difficult spot for the Tar Heels, even at home. I expect Duke’s overall talent to win out rather comfortably.

Duke vs UNC Pick

• Duke -9.5 (-110)

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I’m laying the 9.5 points with Duke in this matchup. The Blue Devils are operating on a different level than UNC right now, and the styles make this a tough matchup for the Heels.

Duke vs UNC KenPom Rankings

In two road games against top-50 KenPom teams, Duke won at Virginia and Gonzaga by an average of 13.5 points, so the Blue Devils are fully capable of a blowout here, even in a hostile environment. I think Duke’s size, versatility and talent will ultimately be too much for the Heels to handle over 40 minutes.

Duke vs UNC Odds

Odds as of March 8 at Bet365. Get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up using a Bet365 bonus code.

The college basketball odds clearly favor Duke in this matchup. The Blue Devils are 9.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 157.5 points. Duke’s -500 moneyline price gives them an implied 83.3% win probability, highlighting the mismatch on paper.