Duke vs North Carolina Picks, Predictions & Flagg Injury News for ACC Semifinals

• #1 Duke is a 7.5-point favorite over North Carolina in tonight’s ACC Semifinal
• Cooper Flagg (ankle) is unlikely to play
• See my Duke vs North Carolina picks and predictions, below

Storied rivals #1 Duke (29-3, 19-1 ACC) and North Carolina (22-12, 13-7 ACC) square-off tonight in the ACC semifinal. Normally, this game would be highly anticipated, but this time around the matchup lacks buzz. That’s because Blue Devils phenom Cooper Flagg is unlikely to play. Online sportsbooks are still siding with Duke in Friday’s college basketball odds, but the spread looks a lot different from their prior matchups this season. Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm ET at the Spectrum Center, in Charlotte, NC, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Duke vs North Carolina Odds

Duke is currently a 7.5-point favorite and -340 on the moneyline while the total is sitting at 152.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the spread hasn’t moved since odds were released, but the total is down three points. Flagg and company were double-digit favorites in both prior meetings versus UNC this season, covering each time. UNC comes back as +270 moneyline underdogs.

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Duke vs North Carolina Predictions (ACC Semifinal)

Flagg suffered an ankle injury in Thursday’s win over Georgia Tech. The college basketball world held their breath when he went down, as did anyone holding a Blue Devils futures ticket in the March Madness odds.

Flagg was unable to return to action, and needed to be helped off the court. He was seen in a wheelchair after the game, and is reportedly unlikely to play tonight. X-rays were negative, but most experts believe we won’t see Flagg again before the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Flagg’s injury is the number one reason why I’m betting the under in this game. With him in the lineup, Duke operates like a well oiled offensive machine. The Wooden Award odds favorite is a generational play maker as a big, and his replacements are unproven. The Blue Devils will rely more heavily now on freshman Kon Knueppel and junior Tyrese Proctor. Roughly 90% of their respective minutes have come with Flagg on the court, forcing the Duke to rework its offense on 24 hours notice.

Duke vs North Carolina Offensive Ranks

Another reason I’m pessimistic on a high-scoring affair, is North Carolina’s recent form. They were dreadful in the ACC quarters versus Wake Forest. UNC shot only 34% from the field, and committed 12 turnovers. RJ Davis was the lone Tar Heel with any kind of offensive rhythm, but he’s struggled versus the Blue Devils this season.

Davis is averaging only 16 points per game against Duke in two matchups. He’s shooting 42% from the field, and has produced only five assists. The Blue Devils have held North Carolina to 70 points or less in both games, winning each time by double-digits.

Duke vs North Carolina Picks

• Under 152.5 (-105) at DraftKings

That kind of stifling defense is nothing new to Duke fans. The Blue Devils are number five in scoring defense this season. They’re second in opponent effective field goal percentage, and top-20 in steals.

As good as Flagg is, he’s not a game-changer at the defensive end. Yes, he’ll chip in a multi-block game once and a while, but his absence will be felt much more on offense.

Without Flagg, I expect a slow start from Duke, as they adjust without their star offensively. North Carolina is not in top form, and the Blue Devils do an excellent job defending opposing guards, limiting Davis’ ceiling.