Duke Moves To +170 To Win National Title After Epic Comeback At Louisville

• Duke has been the favorite to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament since the season started.
• The Blue Devils are riding an eight-game winning streak after their historic comeback at Louisville.
• While Tennessee is the No. 1 team in the AP Poll, Duke is the top team in the KenPom ratings.

The Duke Blue Devils have been favored to win March Madness for quite some time. Their odds were as high as +630 in the preseason but ever since the action commenced, their 2019 NCAA Tournament odds have gotten shorter and shorter.

They are now at +190 to win the NCAA Tournament, on average, and no longer than +200 at any major sportsbook.

Is that worth a bet?

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds

The Blue Devils Have Been Inconsistent

What’s frustrating with the Blue Devils is that we know what they’re capable of. They just beat No. 3 Virginia on the road by double digits. They also smoked Kentucky (who was No. 2 at the time) by 34 to start the year.

At the same time, this is a team that lost at home to Syracuse, trailed in the second half and had to rally at home against Boston College, and had to crawl out of a 23-point deficit at Louisville on Tuesday.

ICYMI: Syracuse beat No. 1 Duke … and also hit this HEAVE from the other end ? pic.twitter.com/jwk6cCMk6z

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 15, 2019

Some people have compared this squad to the Golden State Warriors in the sense that they know they’re going to win it all. They know that when push comes to shove, they can dominate anyone they have to.

The difference is Golden State will play in best-of-seven series in the playoffs whereas, for the Blue Devils, one bad game ends their run.

Why Duke Is Actually That Good

Of course, there’s plenty to like. While the average fan might think that Duke is just a trio of sensational freshmen – Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish and R.J. Barrett – they are far more than that. Their explosive on offense and their defense can be stellar, too.

Louisville learned just how suffocating it can be in the latter stages of Tuesday’s game. The Blue Devils are actually ranked No. 4 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive ratings. They surrender a respectable 65.6 points per game (42nd in the nation) and that number would be much lower if they didn’t play at such a fast tempo (16th fastest).

Zion Williamson ???? pic.twitter.com/n7G2e1Yp5b

— Alexis Bullen (@alexis_bullen) February 10, 2019

And while the Big Three, who are each expected to go in the top 10 of the 2019 NBA Draft, lead the way, point guard Tre Jones is stellar and also likely to be a first-round pick. There’s depth on the bench and, as you look to the sidelines, you have arguably the best head coach in college basketball.

Some people feel that Tennessee is getting overlooked – even though they’re the No. 1 team in the country, according to the AP Poll. However, Duke beats them in strength of schedule, BPI, Sagarin Ratings, KenPom and Quadrant 1 wins. This is the true No. 1 team in the land.

Are They Worth A Bet?

The answer to this question is a short “no”. It’s a personal decision for every bettor but I’ve seen too many close calls to risk a long-term bet like that for only +190.

Zion Williamson SHAKES da RIM ?? pic.twitter.com/1TdH5Td7Wb

— VERSACEBOYENT (@VersaceBoyEnt2) February 10, 2019

Remember, outside of the Louisville game, they’ve also had close calls against Virginia, Florida State, Auburn and a loss to Gonzaga. And they’ve yet to play North Carolina yet (two upcoming meetings). This team is uber-talented but they are beatable. Winning a National Championship requires winning five straight games against quality competition, and +190 odds is too short even for this Duke team.