Louisville vs Creighton Predictions & Picks (March 20)

• The #8 Louisville Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites over the #9 Creighton Bluejays on Thursday
• Louisville is 21-2 over its last 23 games
• See my Creighton vs Louisville predictions and odds for March Madness, below

The opening first-round game on Thursday’s NCAA Tournament slate should be a doozy. The #8 Louisville Cardinals (27-7, 20-14 ATS) face the #9 Creighton Bluejays (24-10,19-13-2 ATS) in the South Region’s 8-vs-9 matchup. I’m betting Louisville continues its red-hot play, and online sportsbooks agree. They’ve pegged the Cardinals as small favorites in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:15pm ET from Rupp Arena, in Lexington, KY, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Louisville vs Creighton Odds

Louisville is currently favored by 2.5-points and -155 on the moneyline. The total sits at 145.5, with Creighton coming back as +130 underdogs. Per the March Madness public betting trends, the spread has moved a point towards the Cardinals since opening odds were released, while the total has also risen a point.

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Both of these teams are fresh off runs to their respective conference championship games last weekend. Louisville fell to Duke in the ACC Final, while the Bluejays were defeated by St. John’s in the Big East final. The Cardinals have a major home-court advantage for this matchup, playing in their home state. They’re also riding incredible form, and are quite frankly being undervalued by oddsmakers.

Creighton vs Louisville Public-Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits for Creighton vs Louisville show the public hammering two bets in the first round of 64 game. The ATS splits are split right down the middle with each team getting 50% of handle, but on the moneyline, the public is all over the Cardinals; as of 8:25 am ET, 77% of ML handle was on Louisville to win straight-up.

The public also has a strong take on the game total, putting 74% of O/U handle on over 145.5.

Creighton vs Louisville Prediction & Picks

• Louisville Cardinals -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Louisville was 18-2 in the ACC regular season. They enter play having won 21 of their past 23 games, and rank 13 spots higher than their opponent per KenPom (23 vs 36). Most experts believe they should have been seeded two or three spots better in the March Madness bracket, but a date with the Bluejays is far from a worst-case scenario.

My prediction is that the Cardinals take advantage of the major guard mismatch in this game en route to victory. The backcourt is Louisville’s strength, led by Chucky Hepburn. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year is far from a one-trick pony. Yes, he can lock down opposing guards, but he’s also one of the team’s top scorers. He averages 16 points and 6 assists per night, and is a nice compliment to Terrance Edwards Jr, who pours in 17 points per game.

Louisville is loaded with experience, rolling out four seniors in their starting lineup. They’re 60th in the country in scoring, and rebound well despite being guard heavy. That will be key versus a Creighton team with plenty of size.

Creighton vs Louisville Stats

The Cardinals also defend the perimeter well, holding enemy shooters below 34% from 3. That’s important given how they’ll guard the Blue Jay bigs. Louisville had a double-team rate on bigs in the 80th percentile. They’ll do everything they can to get the ball out of Ryan Kalkbrenner’s hands, who is one of the top big men in the country.

Kalkbrenner can single handedly win this game for Creighton, but I trust the Cardinals will force him to pass out of double teams. That will give the Blue Jay shooters a chance to step up, but this is far from the best three-point shooting team Creighton has had in a while. Just 34% of their field goal attempts are threes, which ranks 178th nationwide.

Ultimately, Louisville’s backcourt strength and homecourt advantage is too hard to pass up. It should also be noted, they have enough size to bang with Creighton, reducing one of the Blue Jays biggest strengths. Creighton has never fully recovered from their losing second leading scorer Pop Isaacs earlier in the season. That’s put more pressure on Steven Ashworth, who has a 22% turnover rate. Not ideal when you’re being hounded by a relentless defender like Hepburn.

Don’t sleep on this Cardinals team in the Final Four odds either. A win on Thursday sets up a showdown with top-seed Auburn, who comes stumbling into March Madness. If they can pull off that upset, the South Region is wide open.

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