Closing Odds for Alabama vs Duke, Plus Score Predictions & Betting Splits

• The Alabama vs Duke spread favors the Blue Devils by 7.5 points in Saturday’s Elite Eight matchup
• The over/under has fluctuated between 172.5 and 176.0 points throughout the week
• Check out the latest Alabama vs Duke odds, line movement analysis, score predictions, and public betting splits below

The No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (28-8) will square off against the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (34-3) in an epic Elite Eight showdown at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Saturday, March 29. The game is scheduled for 8:49 pm ET with TBS/truTV handling the broadcast.

Both teams enter this clash with their offenses firing on all cylinders. Alabama just dropped 113 points on BYU in the Sweet 16, draining an NCAA Tournament record 25 three-pointers. Not to be outdone, the Blue Devils also eclipsed the century mark in a 100-93 shootout win over Arizona. Duke is averaging a blistering 94 points per game through three tournament contests, a program record pace.

Jump To: Latest Alabama vs Duke Odds | Alabama vs Duke Projected Score | Alabama vs Duke Public Betting Splits

Latest Alabama vs Duke Odds

Duke opened as 6.5-point favorites last Sunday but the line has since moved to Duke -7.5 at most sportsbooks. Alabama’s moneyline odds of +253 carry a 28.3% implied probability while the Blue Devils are hefty -310 chalk to advance to the Final Four.

The spread has toggled between Duke -6.5 and Duke -7.5 since markets opened, suggesting relatively balanced betting action from the public. Most shops opened the Blue Devils at either -6.5 or -7.0, with the line ticking up to the current consensus of -7.5. The lack of any dramatic spread movement indicates oddsmakers and sharp bettors view this as roughly a 7-point game.

FanDuel, one of the market-setting sportsbooks, opened at Duke -6.5 (-110) on Friday morning and has frequently adjusted the juice rather than the number, bouncing between -115 and -122 on the -6.5 spread. They briefly touched Duke -7.5 a couple times over the weekend but have settled back at the opener of Duke -6.5, now with inflated -122 juice.

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Odds as of March 29, 2025 (6pm ET), at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on Alabama vs Duke.

The total opened at 173.5 and has held steady there for much of the week leading up to tip-off. Currently, FanDuel is dealing over 173.5 at -114, with the under 173.5 priced at -106. There has been some yo-yoing of the total, though, with the number bouncing between 172.5 and 176.0 at various shops.

Dips to 172.5-173.5 have likely come from respected money on the under, while the moves up to 175.0-176.0 probably reflect an avalanche of public over bets. With the total now back at the opener across the entire market, it appears sportsbooks have found the number that balances liabilities on both sides.

Alabama vs Duke Projected Score

The average Bama vs Duke projected score from KenPom, Haslam, and Torvik has Jon Scheyer’s team prevailing by a 6-point margin, 86-80. All three trusted analytics models project the game to surpass the 173.5-point total with some room to spare.

KenPom has the highest total at 168 combined points, and gives the Blue Devils a 70% overall win probability.

Alabama vs Duke Public Betting Splits

The public is expecting a shootout and is heavily backing the over, with 80% of total bets and 79% of the total handle coming in on over 173.5 points. Alabama is drawing the majority of the spread action as 7.5-point underdogs, garnering 59% of ATS bets and 57% of the ATS money.

But on the moneyline, bettors are siding with the favored Blue Devils, as 91% of moneyline tickets and 87% of ML dollars are on Duke to reach the Final Four.

Alabama is a +1000 longshot in the latest odds to win March Madness. Duke, meanwhile, now has the shortest odds of any remaining team at +150.