Closing Arizona vs Duke Odds, Score Projection & Betting Splits

• The #1 Duke Blue Devils are substantial favorites against the #4 Arizona Wildcats in Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup
• Duke has been red-hot, riding a 13-game winning streak and covering in 10 of their last 12 games
• Below, see the closing Arizona vs Duke odds plus score projections and betting splits for March 27

The #1 Duke Blue Devils (33-3, 24-12 ATS) will battle the #4 Arizona Wildcats (24-12, 19-16 ATS) in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 March Madness bracket on Thursday at 9:39 pm ET at the Prudential Center in Newark.

The Blue Devils opened as 9.5-point favorites and -455 on the moneyline when this matchup was set. As we approach tip-off, there’s been some slight movement in the odds.

Closing Arizona vs Duke Odds

Hours from tip-off, Duke remains a 9.5-point favorite, but the pricing has shifted. Arizona’s spread price moved from -105 to -118 at BetMGM, while Duke’s side has lengthened to -102. The moneyline has also shifted from the opening of +350/-455 to +400/-550.

The total has moved up from 153.5 to 154.5 at most books, creating interesting middle opportunities with some showing 152.5 and others 155.5.

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Closing Duke vs Arizona odds as of 6:30 ET on March 27, at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Duke dominated their first two tournament games, cruising past Mount St. Mary’s and smashing Baylor 89-66 in the second round. Tyrese Proctor was red-hot against the Bears, making 9-of-10 shots from the field (including a scorching 7-of-8 from three) to finish with 25 points.

Meanwhile, ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg delivered an 18-point, 9-rebound, 6-assist performance after recovering from an ankle injury suffered in the ACC Tournament.

Arizona had a tougher path, blowing out Akron 93-65 in their opener before rallying from an early 19-4 deficit against Oregon to win 87-83. Caleb Love led the comeback with 29 points and nine rebounds, while Tobe Awaka dominated the glass with 14 rebounds.

These teams met earlier this season on November 22, with Duke winning 69-55 at Arizona despite shooting just 43% from the floor. In that game, Flagg scored 24 points while Love struggled, shooting just 3-of-13.

Arizona vs Duke Projected Score

The major analytics sites project a comfortable Duke win, but Arizona cover. KenPom has the Blue Devils winning by eight points (81-73), while Haslametrics has virtually the same projection at 81.3-73. Torvik, meanwhile, has the tightest projection at 80-73, which would be a seven-point Duke victory.

Duke currently ranks as one of the top teams across all analytics platforms, with KenPom rating them as having the highest-rated offense in the country. The Blue Devils lead all high-major schools in effective field goal percentage (57.9%) while turning the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate (13.6%).

Arizona vs Duke Betting Splits

The NCAAB betting splits show fascinating trends. While Duke is receiving 95% of moneyline bets, a staggering 68% of moneyline handle is on Arizona, indicating some sharp big-money wagers on the underdog Wildcats.

The spread betting is more balanced, with Duke getting 52% of bets and 57% of handle. For the total, the public is heavily backing the over with 85% of both tickets and money on over 154.5.

Duke’s size advantage could be problematic for Arizona, with the Blue Devils featuring a lineup where all starters are 6-6 or taller, including 7-2 Khaman Maluach at center.

For Arizona, freshman Carter Bryant (6-8) could be key as he has the length to potentially guard Flagg. The Wildcats’ path through the rugged Big 12 Conference (eighth-toughest schedule nationally) may have them better prepared than Duke (60th-ranked schedule).

The over has hit in 9 of Duke’s last 10 games with Flagg in the lineup, which explains the public’s enthusiasm for the over. Arizona may try to wear down Flagg by attacking him defensively, a strategy that worked for Clemson in Duke’s lone loss since November.