Cincinnati vs OK State Odds, Predictions & Expert Picks (Big 12 Tournament)

• The Cincinnati Bearcats and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet in the first round of the 2025 Big 12 Tournament on Tuesday
• The Bearcats are big favorites, though the Cowboys took the only regular-season meeting in Stillwater
• See my favorite Cincinnati vs OK State picks and predictions plus the odds for the game in Kansas City, MO

The 2025 Big 12 Tournament kicks off with a first-round matchup between the Cincinnati Bearcats (17-14, 7-13 Big 12, 13-16-2 ATS) and Oklahoma State Cowboys (15-16, 7-13 Big 12, 14-17 ATS) at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City at 11:30 am CT/12:30 pm ET. Coincidentally, these teams also met in their last regular-season game with OK State winning easily at home. But oddsmakers see the rematch going very differently.

Cincinnati vs OK State Odds

The Bearcats are 7.5-point neutral-court favorites on Tuesday afternoon and short -358 favorites on the moneyline, which equates to a 78.17% implied win probability. The Cowboys come back as +275 underdogs (26.67%) in Tuesday’s college basketball odds. The total is sitting at 138.5 with -110 odds both ways.

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OK State took the only regular-season meeting between the teams on Saturday, which was also the most-recent game for both sides. The Cowboys built an eight-point lead by halftime and never trailed in the second stanza en route to a 78-67 victory as 3.5-point home underdogs. The game finished three points over the total of 142.

OK State’s 6’10 senior center Abou Ousmane had a game-high 24 points in the win along with a game-high eight rebounds. The Cowboys as a team only took nine threes in the entire game, but they hit seven of them (77.8%). Cincinnati also hit seven triples, but needed 28 attempts to do so (25%).

The loss was the third straight for Cincinnati, which was, at one point, 10-1 on the season with three top-100 victories. Few teams in the nation dropped as far as the Bearcats in the KenPom ratings this season. Wes Miller’s team started the season rated 17th in the entire nation, but enter the Big 12 Tournament a mediocre 56th thanks to a brutal 7-13 record in conference play.

They still rate a respectable 25th in defensive efficiency, but 100th on the offensive end.

OK State on the other hand has basically treaded water in what was a low-expectation season. The Cowboys were 89th on opening night and sit 96th as of Tuesday morning. They have played better of late; after starting their Big 12 slate 2-7, they went 5-6 the rest of the way including a 74-68 victory over #10 Iowa State.

The Bearcats haven’t played a single neutral-court game all season. OK State was a disappointing 1-3 in their early-season neutral-site games, beating a bad Miami team (80-74) and losing to FAU (86-78), Nevada (90-78), and rival Oklahoma (80-65).

Cincinnati vs Oklahoma State Prediction

Neither of these teams is good away from home. The Bearcats haven’t won a game outside of Cincinnati since Feb. 5 (losing four in a row) and were just 4-9 overall on the road this year. The Cowboys were even worse; they went 0-10 in road games during Big 12 play and 2-10 overall. Their last win outside of Norman was on Dec. 8 against 206th-rated Seton Hall (85-76).

But this isn’t going to be a “road” environment for either team, and OK State at least has a handful of neutral-court games under its belt.

The Cowboys can absolutely hang with the Bearcats on the glass, if not control it. Neither team shoots well from deep; Cincinnati connects at 32.3% on the season (251st in DI), while OK State hits at 32.1% (262st). Cincinnati has better interior scoring and considerably better interior defense.

I do expect the Bearcats to win, but I am betting OK State to keep it close.

Cincinnati vs OK Picks

• OK State +7.5 (-110)
• Under 138.5 (-110)

My favorite picks for the first game of the Big 12 Tournament are OK State to cover as 7.5-point underdogs, along with the game to stay under the total of 138.5 points.

The winner of Tuesday’s game will have an unenviable matchup with Iowa State in the second round on Wednesday.

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 39-24 (+11.25 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.