Cincinnati vs Iowa State Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Big 12 Tournament)
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Published:
- After an easy win over OK State yesterday, Cincinnati faces Iowa State in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament
- The Cyclones won the only regular-season meeting in Ames (81-70) and are big favorites on Wednesday afternoon
- See my best Cincinnati vs Iowa State predictions and picks, plus the CIN vs ISU odds and player props on March 12
The only sure path to the 2025 NCAA Tournament for the Cincinnati Bearcats (18-14, 7-13 Big 12, 14-16-2 ATS) is an unlikely run to the Big 12 Tournament title as the #13 seed. Wes Miller’s team took the first step in that arduous journey yesterday with an 87-68 rout of OK State. The road gets steeper from here, though, as the Bearcats matchup with fifth-seeded Iowa State (23-8, 13-7 Big 12, 18-13 ATS) in the second round on Wednesday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City (11:30 am CT/12:30 pm ET). The rested Cyclones, who received a first-round bye, are big favorites to advance to Thursday’s quarterfinals.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Odds
Iowa State is listed as a nine-point neutral-court favorite in Wednesday’s college basketball odds and -550 chalk on the moneyline. The Bearcats come back as +400 underdogs. The game total is currently sitting at 136.0 with -110 odds each way.
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The Bearcats have been one of the best under bets in the nation all season, going 11-21 over/under so far. The Cyclones have been nearly as reliable when it comes to unders, posting a 13-18 O/U record through 31 games.
Listed as one of the first eight teams out of the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Bearcats know their season may be on the line each time they step on the floor in Kansas City. They played like their lives depended on it yesterday, building a 12-point lead over OK State by halftime (36-28) and cruising to a 19-point victory. Junior forward Dillon Mitchell (9.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) had an absolute monster performance with 18 points and 15 rebounds in just 30 minutes.
Iowa State has been off since Saturday, when they won their final regular-season game in a runaway at Kansas State (73-57). The Cyclones took the only regular-season meeting against Cincinnati (81-70) back on Feb. 15, powered by 22 points off the bench from the nation’s best sixth-man, Curtis Jones (17.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG).
Star guard Keshon Gilbert (13.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.3 APG) missed the K-State game with a muscle strain and it’s unclear if he’ll be in the lineup on Wednesday. Iowa State is safely in the March Madness field no matter what happens today. With only seeding at stake, it’s possible TJ Otzelberger would opt to rest arguably his most-important player.
Iowa State heads into the Big 12 Tournament with the seventh-best March Madness championship odds at +2500. Cincinnati is not in the top 50.
CIN vs ISU Player Props
Cincinnati vs Iowa State player props from bet365. See SBD’s list of the fastest payout sportsbooks.
Only five players, three from Iowa State and two from Cincinnati, are listed in the props for this matchup. Cincinnati’s leading scorer, Jizzle James, has the highest point total at just 14.5. Joshua Jefferson leads the Cyclones at 13.5. He also has the highest rebound total on the board at 6.5.
The injury to Gilbert is certainly impacting the number of players available to bet on today. If Gilbert can’t go, Jones presumably steps into the starting lineup.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction
The Bearcats have been one of the worst underperformers this entire season. They came into the year rated 17th at KenPom and sunk all the way to 56th after the regular season. But as yesterday’s rout of OK State showed, the talent is there. Even without getting much from James, Cincy was able to pile up 87 points, getting 18 or more from three other starters (Day Day Thomas, 21; Josh Reed, 19; Dillon Mitchell, 18).
The Cyclones showed signs of declining towards the end of their Big 12 schedule. They dropped out of the top four – which would have granted them a bye to the quarterfinals – with three losses in their final five games. That includes a 74-68 setback at the same OK State team that Cincinnati just destroyed.
Iowa State’s tenacious and well-coached defense, which currently sits 10th in the nation in efficiency, might wind up stifling an inconsistent Bearcats attack, which ranks a disappointing 98th in efficiency. But I still firmly believe that Cincinnati is being undervalued as a +400 underdog. Their odds give them just a 20% implied win probability, and the gap between these teams is not that big, especially on paper. Iowa State plays at a relative fast pace and has elite athletes all over the court; I am concerned that Cincinnati’s tired legs might not get the job done over the full 40 minutes, so I’m targeting the Bearcats’ first-half moneyline. (Anecdotally, Cincinnati played Iowa State to a 39-39 stalemate on the road in their regular-season game.)
I’m also betting the under on 136.0. Cincinnati was happy to play at the Cowboys’ up-tempo pace yesterday, recognizing they had a distinct edge in talent. Wes Miller won’t likely be so obliging against Iowa State. Cincinnati plays at just the 277th-fastest tempo in Division I and boasts the #21 defense at KenPom. Expect them to try to grind this game to a crawl in order to get the Cyclone offense out of rhythm.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State Picks:
- Cincinnati first-half moneyline (+230)
- Under 136.0 (-110)
Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 40-30 (+6.36 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
