Best Sweet 16 Picks For Every Game Today (Friday, Mar. 28)

• See my top Sweet 16 picks for the 4-game March Madness slate tonight
• Michigan’s hot streak gives them value as a Sweet 16 underdog
• Read below for expert Sweet 16 picks for the four games tonight (March. 28)

The NCAA Tournament resumes with four can’t-miss Sweet 16 matchups on Friday night.

Michigan State aims to extend their March magic against Ole Miss, while Kentucky and Tennessee renew their SEC rivalry. Later, Michigan’s surprising tournament run faces top-seeded Auburn, and Houston’s elite defense takes on Purdue’s dynamic offense.

After poring over the March Madness stats, odds and matchups, I’ve zeroed in on four best bets for Friday night’s slate. Let’s dive into my top Sweet 16 picks and predictions.

Friday Night March Madness Odds (March 28)

Friday night Sweet 16 odds as of 2pm ET on March 28 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best March Madness betting sites.

Pick #1: Michigan State Spread (-3.5)

Kicking off my Sweet 16 picks for March Madness on March 28th is a play on the Michigan State spread of -3.5 against Ole Miss. This game tips off at 7pm ET, with Tom Izzo and Chris Beard facing off for the first time since the 2019 Final Four.

MSU is playing their best basketball at the perfect time, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games while showcasing the nation’s best 3-point defense, limiting opponents to just 27.8% from beyond the arc. That defensive dominance will be a major problem for a guard-heavy Rebels team.

Coach Chris Beard has done a remarkable job getting Ole Miss to their first Sweet 16 since 2001, but they struggled rebounding all season, ranking just 15th in the SEC in that category. Michigan State, meanwhile, ranks first in the Big Ten in both free throw attempts and makes, which will prove crucial in a tight game.

The experience factor cannot be overlooked here. This is Michigan State’s 38th NCAA Tournament appearance, with Tom Izzo now coaching in his 16th Sweet 16. The Spartans have the veteran leadership needed in these pressure situations, and I expect them to wear down the Rebels with their physical defense and efficient offense. Smart money has been moving toward Michigan State all week.

• The Pick: Michigan State -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Pick #2: Tennessee Spread (-4.5)

For another one of my Friday Sweet 16 Picks, I’m backing Tennessee to cover the 4.5-point spread against Kentucky. Yes, the Wildcats swept the regular season series, but this Tennessee team is poised for revenge on the bigger stage.

Tennessee ranks among the nation’s top 15 in defensive efficiency, particularly excelling at guarding the 3-point line, which will be huge against a Kentucky team that shot a blistering 24-for-48 from beyond the arc in their two previous matchups.

The game being played at Lucas Oil Stadium instead of a traditional arena creates an interesting dynamic. As a football stadium converted for basketball, those unique sight lines should lead to shooting regression for Kentucky’s perimeter game. This plays perfectly into Tennessee’s hands, as they aim to disrupt Kentucky’s offensive rhythm and limit transition opportunities.

Tennessee’s guard tandem of Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack gives them two of the best individual defenders in the country, perfectly equipped to contain Kentucky’s backcourt. The Volunteers’ disciplined halfcourt defense and ability to force tough shots will be the difference-maker in this one. I predict Rick Barnes’ squad advances to the Elite Eight with a convincing win.

• The Pick: Tennessee -4.5 (-110 at Fanduel)

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Pick #3: Michigan Spread (+8.5)

I like most of the favorites in my Sweet 16 picks tonight, but Michigan is the underdog I’m confident will cover the number. The Wolverines are catching a whopping 8.5 points against the Tigers in a game that will be broadcast on CBS.

I’m taking Michigan to cover the 8.5-point spread against Auburn in what should be a tight matchup. The Wolverines are arguably the hottest team in the tournament right now, having won and covered the spread in each of their last five games. Their remarkable turnaround under first-year coach Dusty May has them playing with house money at this point.

Michigan center Vlad Goldin was absolutely dominant in their second-round win over Texas A&M, posting 23 points and 12 rebounds. That inside presence will challenge Auburn’s frontcourt, even with National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome (18.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG) patrolling the paint for the Tigers.

While Auburn deserves their #1 seed status, they’ve shown vulnerability in tournament play, trailing Alabama State in the first half of their opener and falling behind Creighton at halftime in the Round of 32. Michigan has the size, scoring balance, and momentum to keep this game close throughout. The Wolverines might not pull the outright upset, but I predict they’ll keep it within the number.

• The Pick: Michigan +8.5 (-105 at Bet365)

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Purdue vs Houston Prediction

Houston is my strongest play of the night, laying 8.5 points against Purdue. Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars feature the nation’s #1 defense in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom, allowing just 57.9 points per game while limiting opponents to 38.1% shooting. Their suffocating defense will be the difference against a Purdue team that’s struggled with ball security.

In their second-round win, the Boilermakers turned the ball over 19 times against McNeese State. That’s a major red flag heading into a matchup with Houston’s pressure defense. The Cougars are making their sixth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, showing they’re tournament-tested and ready for this stage.

What separates this Houston team from last year’s squad is their improved offense. The Cougars are shooting an impressive 39.8% from three-point range, ranking first among all NCAA teams. That balance makes them nearly impossible to defend.

While Purdue may have home-court advantage with a pro-Boilermaker crowd in Indianapolis, Houston’s elite two-way efficiency will prove too much to overcome. I forecast the Cougars cruise into the Elite Eight, so I’m also betting the Under for Purdue’s team total. After all, Houson’s elite defense held three of their past four opponents under their respective totals.

The Picks:

• Houston -8.5 (-110 at Caesars)
• Purdue Under 61.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)