Best March Madness Picks for Friday Night (Mar. 21)

• New Mexico is a live underdog against inconsistent Marquette in Friday night NCAAB
• UConn’s dominant March Madness trends make them a strong play
• See my best March Madness picks for Friday night (Mar. 21) below

The first round of March Madness continues Friday night with several matchups offering betting value. New Mexico aims to take down Marquette in South region action, while the defending champs UConn look to roll against Oklahoma. Late night hoops wraps up with an Over/Under play as Liberty battles Oregon.

After digging into the March Madness stats, numbers and trends, I’ve come up with three college basketball picks for Friday night’s slate.

Friday Night March Madness Odds (March .21)

Friday night college basketball odds as of 5pm ET on March. 21 at top-rated March Madness apps.

New Mexico vs Marquette Prediction

I’m really liking New Mexico to pull the outright upset as a 4-point underdog. The Lobos come in red-hot, having won 8 of their last 10 games while going 8-2 ATS over that stretch. Mountain West Player of the Year Donovan Dent (20.1 PPG) is playing at an elite level right now.

New Mexico matches up well with Marquette. The Lobos rank 48th in KenPom since Feb 1, just three spots behind the 45th-ranked Golden Eagles. Shaka Smart’s squad has been shaky lately, losing 6 of their last 10 games outright. They’ve struggled against upper-tier competition.

The metrics point to New Mexico as well. The Lobos are battle-tested, going 7-2 against tournament teams this season. With a top-20 defense and an offense averaging over 81 PPG, they have the balance to hang with Marquette for 40 minutes. Sharp money has moved this line down from the 4.5 opener, indicating smart bettors are on the dog.

I’m rolling with Pitino’s experienced New Mexico squad on the moneyline at tasty plus-money odds. The Lobos have the talent and momentum to score the mild 7/10 upset.

• The Pick: New Mexico ML (+155 at DraftKings)

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Oklahoma vs UConn Prediction

Switching gears to the Huskies, I’m laying the points with the champs. UConn isn’t just 12-0 SU in their last 12 tourney games – they’ve also gone 12-0 ATS, covering by a whopping 17.7 PPG. That’s as dominant as it gets.

The Huskies have clear matchup edges here. Their size and length, ranking 48th in average height, should overwhelm an undersized Sooners squad that struggles on the glass. UConn’s top-20 offense (36 paint points per game) will have its way against an Oklahoma defense allowing 54.9% shooting inside the arc.

Dan Hurley’s deliberate pace is also a major problem for the Sooners. Oklahoma is a top-10 transition offense but will find limited opportunities to run against the methodical Huskies. UConn allows only 7.6 fastbreak points per game. If the Huskies control tempo, the Sooners are in trouble.

Give me UConn to continue its under-the-radar dominance. They have the size, defense and championship DNA to win comfortably and cover this modest number. Lay the 5.5 points.

• The Pick: UConn -5.5 (-120 at Fanduel)

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Liberty vs Oregon Prediction

In the nightcap, I’m eyeing a totals play with the Liberty/Oregon Under 137.5. Several key factors point to a low-scoring rock fight:

First, Liberty plays at a snail’s pace, ranking 285th in adjusted tempo. The Flames also boast the nation’s 3rd-best perimeter defense, allowing only 28% from deep. Oregon will struggle for open looks against their pack-line scheme.

Second, the Ducks have been an Under machine lately, cashing 7 of their last 8 to the Under. Dana Altman’s squad ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. They have the size and length to limit the undersized Flames on the glass and challenge their 65% free throw shooters.

Finally, the late tip-off and cross-country travel is a tough spot for the East Coast Flames. Expect some sluggish offense to start this one. With sharps pushing this number down two points already, the Under 137.5 is the play.

• The Pick: Liberty/Oregon Under 138 (-120 at Bet365)

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