These Are KenPom’s Best March Madness Picks

• I have compared the odds for every first round March Madness game to the score projections at KenPom
• A ton of March Madness totals are significantly lower than their KenPom totals
• See the top ten best March Madness bets for the first round according to KenPom’s predictions

The original and still (for my money) the best college basketball analytics site, KenPom (“KP”) has set out its score projections for all first round March Madness games. I have compared the KenPom predictions to the current odds at DraftKings and culled the “best bets”, so to speak, from the site, i.e. the games in which the odds (spread, moneyline and/or total) differ the most from the score prediction at KP.

March Madness Best Bets According to KenPom

Odds and totals from DraftKings at 11:51 am ET, March 19. Get the best March Madness betting promos before tip-off on the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday.

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KenPom’s Top Pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma Moneyline (+190) vs UConn

For the most part, the moneyline odds for first round games are largely reflective of the win probability at KenPom. But that is decidedly not the case in the 8/9 matchup between Oklahoma and two-time defending-champion UConn. KenPom projects a one-point UConn win, but Dan Hurley’s Huskies are laying 5.5 points to the Sooners.

On the moneyline, Oklahoma is a +190 underdog, which carries an implied win probability of just 34.48. The KenPom projection gives the Sooners a 48% chance of winning. That’s a massive difference that you won’t often find in modern college basketball.

Yes, Hurley has won 12 straight NCAA Tournament games but the talent discrepancy he enjoyed between his Huskies and the rest of the nation, including these Sooners, just isn’t there this year. That’s evident from the March Madness championship odds, where UConn is priced at a long +8000.

Ole Miss Is Being Undervalued vs North Carolina

The #11 North Carolina Tar Heels put an absolute beatdown on San Diego State (95-68) in their First Four matchup last night. Their only two losses since Feb. 10 were against Duke (9-2 in that span) and the betting public likes what they see. Despite being the worse seed, North Carolina opened as a 1.5-point favorite against #6 Ole Miss in the first round.

But KenPom’s analytics still say the Rebels are the slightly better team, even after UNC’s destruction of the Aztecs. KenPom projects a 77-76 Ole Miss victory and gives the Rebels a 54% chance of winning. Ole Miss’ moneyline price (+102) equates to a 49.5% implied win probability. That’s not nearly as big a discrepancy as the Oklahoma/UConn game, but it’s still meaningful.

KenPom Loves the Over in UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech

When it comes to totals, the biggest discrepancy on the board is 4.5 points in #14 UNC Wilmington vs #3 Texas Teach. The total is currently sitting at just 142.5, whereas the KenPom projection is for an 81-66 TTU victory, which amounts to 147, or 4.5 points higher.

Several other games are showing a 3.5-point discrepancy between their totals and the KP projections, including: #10 New Mexico vs #7 Marquette, which has a total of 153.5 but a KenPom projection of just 150 points; #11 Drake vs #6 Missouri, which has a total of 132.5 points and a KP projection of 136; and #10 Arkansas vs #7 Kansas, which has a total of 145.5 and a KP projection of 142.

Be sure to check out SBD’s other March Madness content::

• Key March Madness Injuries & Absences to Know for First Round of 2025 NCAA Tournament
• Printable March Madness bracket
• SBD’s Expert March Madness Brackets
• The Public’s Pick for Every March Madness Game
• The 3 Best March Madness Cinderella Picks for 2025
• Early March Madness Bets to Target – Three First-Round Underdogs Showing Value
• Odds to Reach Final Four for All 68 Teams in 2025 NCAA Tournament
• Odds to Make the Sweet 16 for All 68 Teams, Plus Best Picks