Baylor vs Mississippi State Picks, Predictions and Betting Lines

• The #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs are 1-point favorites over the #9 Baylor Bears in 1st Round East Region action on Friday
• Mississippi State has dropped five of seven coming in
• See my Baylor vs Mississippi State picks, predictions and betting lines for March Madness, below

The opening matchup on Friday’s NCAA Tournament slate features a pair of struggling teams. The Baylor Bears (19-14) face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) in the East Region’s 8 vs 9 matchup, with online sportsbooks siding with Mississippi State in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:15pm ET from the Lenovo Center, in Raleigh, NC, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Betting Lines and Odds

The Bulldogs are currently favored by 1-point and -120 on the moneyline. The total sits at 144.5, with the Bears coming back as +100 underdogs. Per the March Madness public betting trends, the spread has done a 180 since opening odds were released. Baylor were initially 1.5 point favorites, but early money was on Mississippi State.

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As we get closer to game time, the betting action is drifting back towards the Bears. I agree with this move, as the Bears are the more experienced team, and boast more talent.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Public-Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits for Baylor vs Mississippi State show the Bears drawing 64% of the spread bets. Those wagers account for 78% of the money, which means big money bettors (typically professionals), share my opinion.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

• Baylor Bears moneyline (+100) at DraftKings

I’m targeting Baylor on the moneyline as my pick for this matchup. The Bears are seeded lower in the March Madness bracket, despite a better Net and offensive rating. They stumbled down the stretch with five losses in their final eight games, but two of those were to Tournament teams, by a total of six points.

They have an electric freshman in VJ Edgecombe, a projected top-10 draft pick. They also have plenty of players with March Madness experience, including a pair of transfers who’ve made deep runs. Jeremy Roach went to a Final Four and Elite Eight in separate years with Duke, while Norchad Omier played in a Final Four with Miami.

Baylor has four players who score in double-figures, and do an excellent job at crashing the offensive glass. They’re in the top-third in the nation in three-point shooting, but their ceiling is higher in this game due to the Bulldogs lousy perimeter defense. Mississippi State is 342nd at defending the arc, allowing over 9 threes per contest.

Baylor vs Mississippi State Stats

The Bulldogs defense ranked 237th in opponent effective field goal percentage. They were able to stay competitive thanks to a solid offense, led by Josh Hubbard’s 19 points per game.

Much like Mississippi State, the Bears struggle to defend threes. The problem is, the Bulldogs are not equipped to take advantage. Mississippi State knocks down only 31% of its outside shots.

The Bulldogs were horrendous down the stretch, dropping five of their past seven games. Their only two victories during that time came against LSU, the SEC’s second worst team. They were a 19-1 this season when holding opponents below 80 points, but given the strength of Baylor’s offense, I don’t see them accomplishing that in this matchup.

Another reason to like Baylor, is head coach Scott Drew. He’s got loads of loads of March Madness experience, and is one of the top active coaches against the spread. Drew’s teams are 13-9 ATS as favorites.

Whoever wins this game, don’t expect a deep run with Duke most likely waiting on deck. Baylor has made at least the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament in six consecutive appearances, and I’m predicting they extend that streak.