2019 MEAC Tournament Odds: Norfolk State Listed as Favorites

Updated: March 27, 2020 at 1:35 pm EDT

Published: March 11, 2019

The 2019 MEAC Conference tournament starts today in Norfolk, VA
Top-seeded Norfolk State has effective home-court advantage
Are the Spartans a worthy favorite or should bettors back a longshot?

The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament starts today (Monday, Mar. 11th). All games will be played at Norfolk Scope Arena in Norfolk, VA.

Sportsbooks have released odds for the 11 teams in the tournament. Top-seed Norfolk State (14-2 MEAC) is a sizable favorite.

Odds to Win 2019 MEAC Tournament

Team	Seed	MEAC Conference Tournament Odds (March 11)
Norfolk St.	#1	+150
NC Central	#3	+350
NC A&T	#2	+400
Howard	#4	+650
Bethune Cookman	#5	+800
Morgan St.	#10	+3000
Savannah St.	#6	+5000
South Carolina St.	#9	+5500
Coppin St.	#7	+10000
Delaware St.	#11	+35000
MD Eastern Shore	#8	+35000

Note: the 12th team in the conference, Florida A&M, is banned from postseason play due to violations of NCAA Academic Progress Rate rules.

2019 MEAC Tournament Bracket

Eleven teams makes for a somewhat awkward bracket. The top-five seeds all get a bye to the quarters, which is why there is a sizable drop in odds after #5 Bethune Cookman.

MEAC Standings and Rankings

The MEAC ranks as the weakest conference in America, per KenPom.com. Norfolk State (257th) is the highest-ranked team by a pretty wide margin. North Carolina A&T (298th) is the only other MEAC team ranked better than 300th.

Team	Conf. Record	KenPom Rating (Rank)
Norfolk St.	14-2	-7.81 (257th)
NC Central	10-6	-12.85(311th)
NC A&T	13-3	-11.22 (298th)
Howard	10-6	-12.70 (308th)
Bethune Cookman	9-7	-11.63 (303rd)
Morgan St.	4-12	-17.30 (333rd)
Savannah St.	8-8	-19.09 (338th)
South Carolina St.	5-11	-19.09 (339th)
Coppin St.	7-9	-21.36 (343rd)
Delaware St.	2-14	-29.98 (353rd)
MD Eastern Shore	5-11	-29.52 (352nd)

Finding Value in the MEAC Tournament

A single-elimination tournament between 11 bad teams might initially tempt you into betting a longshot at a huge price. But before you lay any money on MD Eastern Shore or Delaware State, note that they are the two worst teams in all of Division I basketball.

Two of Delaware State’s five wins came against non-DI opponents. Same goes for two of Eastern Shore’s seven wins. Both would have to win four straight games to win the tournament.

While Eastern Shore is actually riding a three-game win streak, two of those wins came against Delaware and this is the first time all year won even back-to-back games.

As for Delaware State, each one of their wins was followed by a double-digit loss.

With effective home-court advantage and the best KenPom rating, Norfolk State deserves to be a pretty big favorite. But is +150 (40% probability) too short?

They will face either Howard or Bethune Cookman in the semis. Both teams beat Norfolk in the regular season, and Howard did so on the road.

ICYMI: .@HUMensBB‘s Cole’s Last Second Shot Down Norfolk State #BleedBlue #OurTime #MEACMBB #Howard_RYS19 https://t.co/F9xXYFtkII

— Howard Athletics (@HUBisonSports) March 8, 2019

Does that make either the #4 or #5 seed a value bet? Howard and Bethune Cookman split their two regular-season meetings against each other. Howard has won four straight entering the tournament, but Cookman ranks as the better team at KenPom. They’re both about 50/50 to even move onto the semis, and they’d be modest underdogs in both of their final two games. At +650 (13.3%) and +800 (11.1%), respectively, I don’t calculate value on either.

In my view, there’s better value in the bottom half of the bracket.

For unknown reasons, NC A&T (+400) is getting slightly longer odds than NC Central (+350). A&T just crushed Central by 22 in the last regular-season game (74-52, home) and also beat Central on the road in January (51-48).

NC A&T ranks better at KenPom, as well (298th vs 311th). Greensboro (home of NC A&T) is a little further from Norfolk than Durham (home of NC Central), but it’s a pretty negligible difference (235 miles vs 183 miles).

At +400, they only need to win the tournament slightly over 20% of the time for this bet to have value. They will be big favorites in the quarters, small favorites in the semis, and there’s a realistic possibility they’ll be favored in the finals, as well, if Norfolk State gets bumped off.

Best MEAC Tournament Value Bet: NC A&T (+400)

SBD’s NCAA Conference Tournament Coverage:

Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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