Iowa vs Northwestern Picks and Odds

• The Iowa Hawkeyes (11-2, 5-1 Big Ten) play the Northwestern Wildcats (6-5, 3-4 Big Ten) on Sunday, January 17
• Iowa has won four straight while Northwestern has lost four straight
• See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet, below

The Iowa Hawkeyes (11-2, 5-1 Big Ten) take their number-five ranking to Northwestern (6-5, 3-4 Big Ten) to take on the Wildcats at Noon EST on Sunday.

Iowa seems to be a runaway freight train after steamrolling their latest victim, Minnesota, 86-71 last Sunday. The Wildcats are on the exact opposite trajectory after being beaten by at least 10 points in each of their last four games.

This will be the second meeting of the season between the schools after Iowa took the first one 87-72 back on Dec. 29. The currents odds have the Hawkeyes favored by 9.5 in this matchup.

Iowa vs Northwestern Odds

Odds as of January 16th at FanDuel.

Iowa Is Dominant

This season feels different for the Hawkeyes. Led by Luka Garza, they look to be a team that is almost impossible to stop on offense and will be a tough out come tournament time. According to KenPom, only one team in the nation (Gonzaga) is better in the offensive efficiency metric and it’s by the slimmest of margins. It’s been a long time since the Hawkeyes have been this good and there is a buzz around the team that has not been there in a long time.

Iowa has been ranked in the AP Top 10 the first eight weeks. The last time the #Hawkeyes have been ranked in the top 10 eight consecutive weeks was the 1988-89 season. pic.twitter.com/vVSsYv20iq

— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) January 11, 2021

The Hawkeyes’ high-powered offense wasn’t the only thing on display in their last game against Minnesota. Iowa avenged an earlier loss to the Golden Gophers by holding them to a 35% shooting night from the floor. Garza paced Iowa in scoring as he has all season with 33 points. He leads the nation in scoring at 27.6 points per game and is the clear favorite to win the Wooden Award.

Northwestern Needs A Win

The Wildcats started conference play with wins over Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State. They seemed to be on the right track before being derailed by this Iowa team 87-72. The loss began their current four-game losing streak, the most recent an 81-71 set back to the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Final: #21 Ohio State 81, Northwestern 71#B1GCats | #PoundTheRock

— Northwestern Basketball (@NUMensBball) January 14, 2021

The Wildcats are better than their losing streak shows. Every loss has been to a ranked opponent and against the Buckeyes, they ran into a team that just wouldn’t seem to miss. Ohio State shot 50% from the floor and Northwestern couldn’t keep pace. One bright spot for the Wildcats was Chase Audige, who poured in a season-high 25 points in the losing effort.

Best Betting Angle

This game could come down to pace and ability to execute. Both teams play faster than 70 possessions per 40 minutes and are more than happy to get into a shootout. Iowa currently ranks 16th in the country in effective field goal percentage at 56.7% while Northwestern quietly ranks 75th at 52.6%. Both teams can score with anyone and likely won’t slow down the pace no matter the score.

In the first meeting between the two programs, Luka Garza had a quiet game relative to his standards, only scoring 18 points to go along with six rebounds. The Wildcats did a good job of taking him away but it’s hard to imagine they will be so fortunate this time around. On the flip side, Northwestern was held to only 44% from the floor which is well below what they normally shoot. This game has all the makings of one that could be an up and down, up-tempo style shootout where the Hawkeyes can approach 90 points. If that happens, it should go over the total.

Pick: Over 157.5 (-112)