Arkansas vs Texas Tech Expert Picks, Odds & Betting Trends for March 27

• The #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders are a 5.5-point favorite over the #10 Arkansas Razorbacks in Thursday’s Sweet 16 game
• Arkansas will have a huge addition back in the lineup while Texas Tech hopes a key contributor can play
• See my Arkansas vs Texas Tech odds and predictions for the West Region Sweet 16 contest, below

The #10 Arkansas Razorbacks (22-13, 16-18-1 ATS) have begun a potential Cinderella run through the March Madness. They dispatched the #7 Kansas Jayhawks in the first round, then upset the #2 St. John’s Red Storm in the second round. They’re in tough, however, as they square off versus the #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (27-8, 18-17 ATS), who advanced to the second round by defeating the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks 82-72, then the Drake Bulldogs 77-64 to make the Sweet 16.

Thursday’s college basketball odds have the Red Raiders as favorites in this tilt. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:09pm ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California, with TBS/truTV providing the broadcast coverage in the United States and TSN in Canada.

Arkansas vs Texas Tech Odds

Texas Tech are currently favorites by 5.5-points, which is the shortest they’ve been in their three tournament games. They’re -250 on the moneyline, while the total is sitting at 147.5. Per the March Madness public betting trends, the public likes Texas Tech to hold serve with 65% of moneyline wagers on them.

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Odds as of March 25 at DraftKings. Download the best March Madness betting apps.

Arkansas vs Texas Tech Analysis

Oddsmakers are showing the Razorbacks respect after their two upset victories, but still favor the higher seed Red Raiders. The -250 odds on the moneyline represents a win probability of 71.43%. Our SBD model believes it’ll be a close battle, with Arkansas vs Texas Tech shaping up to be a 76.7-72.8 tilt, won by Texas Tech, according to the formula. That obviously points to the Razorbacks covering the 5.5 spread, and it being over the listed 147.5 total.

The Red Raiders are 23-5 as the favorite on the moneyline, while Arkansas is 8-10 as the underdog, but they’ve won their first two tournament games as dogs.

How Is the Public Betting Arkansas vs Texas Tech?

Arkansas vs Texas Tech public betting splits as of 1:45 pm ET, March 25

The March Madness public betting splits show Texas Tech getting 65% of wagers on the moneyline, but Arkansas 64% of bets to cover the spread.

The public has another strong take on the game total, where 78% of O/U handle is on over 147.5.

Arkansas vs Texas Tech Prediction

• Arkansas +5.5 (-110)

In his first season with Arkansas, John Calipari has taken them through legendary coaches in Bill Self and Kansas and Rick Pitino for St. John’s. Arkansas was paced by Jonas Aidoo’s 22 points against the Jayhawks, and Billy Richmond III’s 16 points along with Karter Knox’s 15 versus the Red Storm. They could make their third Elite 8 trip in five years.

A huge addition will be coming to the Razorbacks lineup, with Coach Cal confirming junior forward Adou Thiero will be back. He’s been out since February with a knee injury, and put up strong numbers before he was sidelined.

Texas Tech still has injury concerns, particularly with Chance McMillian missing the tournament thus far. No word yet whether or not he’ll be able to make it back. Darrion Williams has suited up despite an ankle sprain, and he was far more effective in the second outing. After putting up just 13 points on 5-of-15 shooting vs UNC Wilmington, he exploded for a game-high 28 points on 11-of-18 versus the Drake Bulldogs.

In the first two contests, the Red Raiders failed to cover against the UNCW Seahawks, but were able to cover the 7.5 spead against Drake.

In the March Madness champion odds, Texas Tech is the +1800 sixth choice to win it all on DraftKings, while Arkansas are massive +10000 longshots.

With Arkansas already pulling off two big upsets, Coach Cal’s experience and the return of Adou Thiero, I think Texas Tech could be in for a rude awakening. The Razorbacks are 14-4 against the spread this season, and I’m going with them covering in this matchup.