2021 MLB MVP Odds Tracker

• This page tracked the odds to win the 2021 AL and NL MVP awards
• Shohei Ohtani (AL) and Bryce Harper (NL) took home the 2021 hardware
• Looking for this year’s MLB MVP odds?

The graphs below were generated by averaging the odds from a number of top online sportsbooks, illustrating the odds to win the 2021 AL and NL Most Valuable Player Awards throughout the course of the season.

• AL / NL

2021 American League MVP Odds

Top Contenders

Top Two All Remaining Players

• Oct. 3: With the regular season over, Ohtani’s stats put him in a class above and his odds shortened to a crazy -10000.
• Sep. 26: Guerrero shortened to +725, but Ohtani is still at -3000 with only a handful of games to go.
• Sep. 20: Guerrero closed the massive chasm of gap between himself and Ohtani a little more. He’s now at +750 while Ohtani faded to -3000.
• Sep. 16: Ohtani’s odds got longer for the first time since mid-July. That said, they only went from -6000 to -5250. Guerrero improved from +1550 to +1050 as his Jays make a playoff push.
• Sep. 12: Despite Guerrero’s Blue Jays sweeping the Yankees in a four-game series in NY, his odds (+1550) did not improve.
• Sep. 6: Ohtani’s latest odds, -6000, correspond to a 98.36% implied probability.
• Aug. 30: Guerrero’s odds (+1450) are fading just like his Blue Jays.
• Aug. 22: There’s not much to say anymore. Ohtani FTW.
• Aug. 16: Ohtani (-1050) keeps raking while Guerrero’s Jays are fading out of the playoff picture. His MVP odds faded to +700.
• Aug. 11: No change at the top. Ohtani (-750) continues to sit miles ahead of Guerrero Jr (+600).
• Aug. 8: The air of inevitability around Ohtani continues to grow. His odds shortened to -750 while second-favorite Guerrero Jr faded from +500 to +600.
• Aug. 2: This has become the most-lopsided race in the majors with Ohtani now at -700 and second-favorite Guerrero fading to +500.
• July 28: Ohtani is at a season-best -365 with Guerrero Jr falling back to +283. Matt Olson and Rafael Devers are now co-third-favorites, but still a distant +4000.
• July 19: Ohtani had a quiet week and faded from -313 to -283 (still a heavy favorite). Guerrero improved from +230 to +205.
• July 13: Guerrero ( +230) fell further back of favorite Ohtani, who improved significantly to -313. Third-favorite Bogaerts continues to reside at a dista0nt +4000.
• July 5: Ohtani is back to being the favorite at -173. He was the first to reach the 30-homer plateau and is showing no signs of ill health.
• June 28: Guerrero’s lead over Ohtani is almost nil at this point; they are at +100 and +102, respectively.
• June 21: Guerrero (+105) and Ohtani (+150) have put more distance between themselves and the second-tier contenders. Third-favorite Bogaerts faded from +2000 to +2400.
• June 14: Guerrero is the outright favorite for the first time this season ( +128) Ohtani fell from +125 to +158. Third-favorite Bogaerts is way back at +2000.
• June 7: Guerrero is nearly level with Ohtani after another big week, improving to +228 while Ohtani remained at +125.
• May 25: Vlad Guerrero Jr improved from +775 to +425, closing the gap on Ohtani, who stayed at +138.
• May 19: Mike Trout’s calf injury, which will sideline him for nearly two months, has led to his odds fading from +200 to +1050. Ohtani is now at +133, shorter than Trout has been all season.
• May 5: The top-four favorites all got shorter: Trout (+205 to +200) Ohtani (+1067 to +867), Buxton (+1567 to +983), and Guerrero (+1933 to +1167). Most of the other top-15 faded, in turn.
• Apr. 27: Byron Buxton is now tied for third-favorite at +1500 with perennial contender Alex Bregman.
• Apr. 20: Ohtani consolidated his grip on second, improving from +1167 to +1033.
• Apr. 12:  Trout faded from +210 to +218. Ohtani improved even further: +1450 to +1167.
• Apr. 6: Shohei Ohtani has started hot on the mound and at the plate, in turn becoming a top-five AL MVP favorite at  +1450. He was +2350 on Opening Day.
• Mar. 25: Mike Trout’s odds faded from +200 to +223 a week from opening day. But none of this main competitors improved significantly.
• Feb. 12: Just as he has for each of the last six seasons, Mike Trout (LAA) is the chalk in the AL, and it’s not close. At +200, Trout has a 33.33% implied probability. Next on the list is Alex Bregman at +1000 (9.1%).

2021 AL MVP Odds

Odds as of Oct. 3, 2021.

2021 National League MVP Odds

Top Contenders

Top Two Top Five All Remaining Players

• Oct. 3: Soto surged to second-favorite with an absolute heater over the final weeks of the season. Harper (-203) is still a heavy favorite, but Soto (+193) is given a reasonable shot.
• Sep. 26: Harper’s late surge continued. He’s now -293. Tatis faded to _325. Soto improved a lot, moving from +3000 to +460.
• Sep. 20: There’s a new favorite in town! Harper (-123) is, for the first time all season, the chalk in the  NL with about 15 games remaining.
• Sep. 16: The gap between Tatis (-200) and Harper (+275) shrunk again, but there are now fewer than 20 games remaining.
• Sep. 12: Harper improved again (from +550 to +380), while Tatis Jr stayed at -250.
• Sep. 6: Harper (+550) is back to being the second-favorite, but Tatis Jr (-280) is still miles ahead of the field.
• Aug. 30: Tatis came back from -300 to -260. But none of the three main contenders made big gains. It’s still Tatis Jr vs the field.
• Aug. 22: Tatis improved to -300. Max Muncy is the new second-favorite at a distant +750. Former second-favorite Harper faded from +490 to +1100.
• Aug. 16: A nice week of production from Tatis Jr led to his odds getting considerably shorter (+100 to -280). Harper faded from +335 to +480. Muncy dropped even further (+655 to +950).
• Aug. 11: Harper’s ascension continues. He’s now +270, while Tatis Jr is back in plus-money (+100). Third-favorite Muncy improved slightly from +475 to +460.
• Aug. 8: Harper (+400) has exploded into the top two. He was a +3225 longshot last week.
• Aug. 2: A slump from Tatis and an injury to deGrom have made this into an unpredictable race again. Newest Dodger Trea Turner improved from +2150 to the +350 second-favorite since being dealt from Washington at the deadline.
• July 28: The last two weeks brought a huge swing thanks to deGrom missing time. Tatis Jr surged from +123 to -210, while deGrom faded from -110 to +175. Trea Turner is now third at +2150.
• July 13: Tatis Jr improved from +180 to +123 entering the All Star break, but deGrom moved into minus odds for the first time this season (+104 to -110). Third-favorite Acuna is nominally at +750 but suffered a season-ending knee injury on Saturday and will not be on the list much longer.
• July 5: deGrom (+125 to +104) and Tatis (+188 to +180) both shortened in what has become a two-horse race, much like Ohtani and Guerrero in the AL.
• June 28: Top-two favorites deGrom and Tatis both improved; deGrom’s odds moved from +193 to +125. Tatis’ odds moved from +225 to +188.
• June 21: deGrom improved from +200 to +193, the shortest any NL player has been this season. But Tatis Jr also improved from +263 to +225, keeping it a tight race.
• June 14: With the top bats slumping, deGrom has improved significantly from +675 to +200. Tatis Jr is a close second at +263.
• June 7: Tatis (+315) has taken over top spot from Acuna (+375) while deGrom’s untouchable season on the mound continued, improving his odds from +1100 to +675.
• May 25: Acuna improved from +300 to +268, but Tatis Jr made  a quantum leap from +1025 to +450, entrenching himself as the second-favorite.
• May 5: Odds-on Cy Young favorite Jacob deGrom is now tied for second in the NL MVP odds, as well, at +800.
• Apr. 27: Tatis Jr is putting up decent numbers since his return from injury and moved back among the top-three favorites at +800. Acuna remains well ahead of the pack at +300.
• Apr. 20: Acuna (+317) shows no signs of slowing down. Slashing .419/.486/.887 with a 1.373 OPS, he leads the NL in average, slugging percentage, and RBI (16).
• Apr. 12: Ronald Acuna has become the clear favorite at  +567. He was back at +800 a week ago.
• Apr. 6:  None of the NL favorites are off to terribly hot starts. Bellinger (+967) is the only member of the top five who saw his odds get shorter since Opening Day.
• Mar. 25:  Soto (+725) is now alone at the top, but Betts (+750), Tatis Jr (+775), and Acuna (+775) are all hot on his tail.
• Feb. 12: Mookie Betts (LAD) and Juan Soto (WAS) have opened as NL MVP co-favorites at +750.

2021 NL MVP Odds

Odds as of Oct. 3, 2021.