March Madness Betting Strategy: 6 Essential Tips to Know

Ah, March Madness. Just about everyone in North America has filled out an NCAA basketball tournament bracket at some point in their life. But seasoned bettors know that betting on college basketball goes way beyond office pools, and you need to learn their betting strategies to turn a profit this spring for the big dance.

Each of the 67 March Madness games in all stages (First Four, first round, second round, Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four, and NCAA championship game) following Selection Sunday will be available for single-game betting at every major sportsbook, and the tournament has become one of the most wagered-on events on the calendar.

But it’s not quite as simple as picking a random regular season underdog to get a sweet payout with an online sportsbook of your choosing. Below, we provide six March Madness betting tips to help you find flawed lines, pick a worthy March Madness champion, and generally keep your bankroll in the black.

Tip 1: March Madness Champions Are Balanced Teams

This is the simplest March Madness betting strategy we have. Whether filling out a bracket or betting on March Madness National Championship futures, there’s little value in picking a one-dimensional team. To win it all, a team has to have an elite offense and a stifling defense. At least, that’s what history tells us.

Over the past 20 tournaments, only one champion has ranked outside the top 20 in offensive efficiency at KenPom (UConn, 2014) and none have ranked outside of the top 20 in defensive efficiency.

Every year, you will find relatively high seeds that are lacking at one end of the court. These teams are not good bets to win the tournament. As you prepare to make those futures bets in 2025, a handful of teams that could find themselves within the first three seed lines fit the bill:

The top contenders this season — Duke, Auburn, Houston and Florida — are all well within the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Arizona, which is a bit further down the list, also meets the criteria.

Tip 2: Don’t Pay Attention to “Expert” Brackets

ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, The Athletic: experts from every sports site are going to post their March Madness picks. When it comes to toss-up basketball games with narrow point spreads, it can be tempting to look at who the majority of the pundits are taking.

But beware. While some of these people truly are experts who earned their status through years of studying Xs and Os, others “earned” their roles by doling out controversial hot-takes that garner clicks, and many more are simply recognizable names who played the game at a high level. This doesn’t mean they know the best March Madness betting strategies!

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Here’s the thing: you can be sure that oddsmakers at the best college basketball betting sites fall into the first category. They know much more about handicapping than anyone you’ll catch on TV. Still, there are essential March Madness bracket tips out there to be aware of, that could help you win your bracket pool.

It can be hard to tell a real expert from a charlatan when you’re merely looking at a bracket.  Before following any “expert” advice, research the pundit providing it. What makes them so sagacious? How well have they done in the past?

Tip 3: Do Pay Attention to Advanced Metrics

The best betting strategies are informed by good data, so we’ve tracked the accuracy of two mathematically-based prediction systems, KenPom and Sagarin, over the last two years.  We’ve found that when their predictions differ on the point spread, there is value in betting on the team that KenPom predicts will cover. Bart Torvik’s T-Rank system has also become a solid tool that you can access for free.

Another new ranking system is NET Rankings. You can understand more about college basketball’s new ranking system here.

Don’t be fooled into thinking this March Madness strategy will result in an instant windfall. It picks losers well over 40% of the time. But if this track record holds in the tournament, it will result in a modest net gain if you’re making single moneyline bets or spread betting on specific games. You can’t win ’em all.

Tip 4: “Home-Court Advantage” Still Matters in the NCAA Tournament

Pay attention to where games are being played. Some schools will have to travel across the country to play their opening-round matchups; others will endure only a short bus trip to the stadium.

Teams playing close to home don’t have to confront jetlag, and the crowd tends to be behind them. Don’t underestimate the emotional boost strong support can provide.

Factors like travel and crowd noise have a bigger impact on [university athletes] than on seasoned professionals.

Boyd’s Bets calculated that Utah has the biggest home-court advantage in the NBA. The Jazz are, on average, 4.16 points better at home than on the road. They were followed closely by the Denver Nuggets at 4.11, but no other team was over 4.0 PPG.

Contrast that with the NCAA, where 31 teams have a home-court advantage over 5.0 PPG. Why the difference?

College basketball players are 18 to 21-year-olds with relatively little game and life experience. Factors like travel and crowd noise have a bigger impact on them than on seasoned professionals.

The best recent example of home-court causing a massive difference came in the 2017 tournament. No. 2 seed Duke was placed in a regional quartet with no. 15 Troy, no. 10 Marquette, and no. 7 South Carolina in Greenville. If your geography is a little rusty, Greenville is in South Carolina, 103 miles from Columbia (home of the Gamecocks).

Tip 5: March Madness Champions Cover the Spread

Nine of the last 10 NCAA Tournament champions have covered the spread in more than 55% of their games during their title-winning season. Nobody did it better than Connecticut in the past two years, as the Huskies covered in 70% of their games in 2024, and 71.1% in 2023. They were also a perfect 6-0 ATS through the tournament in both of those seasons.

Only Kansas in 2022 bucks the trend, covering the spread in exactly half of their 40 games (and in half of their tournament games, as well). One earlier outlier in this metric is Kentucky in 2012. That team was incredibly dominant, but thanks to incredibly high expectations, failed to cover the spread in more than half its games.

Simply finding the teams with the best ATS records on the year and betting them blindly isn’t the best betting strategy; sportsbooks and sharps adjust. But it is wise to reference cover rates when picking champions from a list of strong teams.

ATS Cover Rates of March Madness Champions

Covering the spread means that a team is regularly outperforming expectations. They are beating down the teams they should beat down, winning comfortably in games that are supposed to be close, and pulling upsets in tough road environments.

In short, when you see the combination of a highly-ranked team and a sparkling ATS record, it’s a sure sign of true quality.

Tip 6: Certain Coaches Cover at a Higher Rate

Coaching counts for a lot in college basketball. With 358 teams in Division I, there is a vast discrepancy between coach quality, and that shows up on the scoreboard.

Over the last six years, a handful of coaches have set themselves apart as ATS covering machines:

Best ATS Cover Rates Among Major DI Coaches

Not all of these teams/coaches will make it into the tournament every year, but when they do, take a long, hard look at their individual game lines.

Looking for More March Madness Betting Strategies?

With these six simple strategies in hand, you can now take your March Madness betting to new frontiers. But extensive preparation is the key to sports betting success, and we have plenty more tips for those looking to take a deep dive. Including this complete guide on how to bet on March Madness.

In fact, our sports betting strategy section contains an entire series of March Madness strategy articles. Check it out to develop a detailed plan for the tournament or simply pick up a few additional pointers to bolster your bankroll.

Here is a list of sites where you can find the best March Madness betting bonuses for 2025:

No matter where you’re betting from, never risk more of your bankroll than you can afford to lose.