2025-26 College Football Playoff Odds: Ohio State, Penn State Heavily Favored

• Odds to make the College Football Playoff in 2025-2026 are available for all contenders
• Ohio State (-325), Penn State (-300), and Georgia (-285) lead the way as heavy favorites
• See the make/miss College Football Playoff odds for all teams

The 2025-26 college football season continues the expanded 12-team playoff format, giving more programs than ever a shot at the national championship. From the Week 0 kickoff in late August, it’s just over three months until the final CFP field is set.

We’ll be tracking the odds for college football teams to make and miss the playoffs throughout the year. Our regularly updated graphs provide a clear visual representation of how each team’s chances fluctuate throughout the season.

The final playoff field will be revealed on Sunday, December 7th at 12:00 PM ET. With the new format taking the five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large bids, the race for those final spots should be intense right through Selection Sunday.

Odds to Make College Football Playoff

Top 4 Top 10 11-25 Longshots

• Aug. 18: Ohio State, Penn State, Georgia, and Oregon are the heaviest favorites to make the playoff field ahead of Week 0
• July 22: Texas opens as co-favorite with Ohio State to win the national championship at +550, but their odds to make the playoff (-185) suggest some vulnerability
• June 3: ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson just 47% odds to make the playoff despite top-5 preseason ranking

The preseason CFP odds show clear tiers forming among contenders. The heavy favorites include Ohio State (-325), Penn State (-300), Georgia (-285) and Oregon (-275). That translates to about a 76% chance for the Buckeyes, and a 73% chance for the Ducks, who have the worst odds of this group.

The next tier features Notre Dame (-200), Clemson (-200), Texas (-185) and Alabama (-170). After that, things get interesting with teams like LSU (+110) essentially a coin flip to make the field.

Of the teams who made the playoff last season, SMU faces the longest odds to return at +350. The Mustangs proved they belonged with their first-year appearance but face tougher competition in 2025. The team with the best odds to make the playoff who missed last year is Miami at +200. The Hurricanes added Carson Beck from Georgia and return most of their defense.

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College Football Playoff Odds – All Teams

With 32 teams having at least a 10% chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN Analytics, the expanded format has created more drama than ever. The battle for those seven at-large spots will be fierce, especially among SEC and Big Ten teams.

Texas missing the playoff at +220 odds has drawn betting interest. Despite being co-favorites to win it all, their brutal road schedule (at Ohio State, at Georgia) makes them vulnerable to missing the field entirely.

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Odds as of August 17th, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Projected 12-Team College Football Playoff Field

For detailed projected bracket scenarios and seeding analysis, check out our full 2025-26 CFP bracket projections.

The format gives the four highest-ranked teams the top seeds and first-round byes. This change came after all four top seeds lost in the quarterfinals last year. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots, with seven at-large bids filling out the field.

CFP Qualification History

*Ohio State won the 2024-25 National Championship

The expanded playoff format immediately changed the landscape. Six teams made their CFP debuts in the first year of the 12-team format: Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana, Penn State, SMU and Tennessee. With 32 teams having realistic playoff hopes in 2025, expect more first-time participants this season.

Ohio State’s championship victory gave them their second title in the CFP era. The Buckeyes will try to become the first repeat champions since Georgia won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023 during the four-team playoff era.

Archived CFP Odds:

• 2025
• 2023
• 2022
• 2021
• 2020