2020 Democratic Nominee Odds: Joe Biden Becoming a Major Threat to Kamala Harris

• Joe Biden and Beto O’Rourke have yet to announce a run for the Presidency, but they are among the favorites
• Harris, the current favorite, has had a couple of minor gaffs on the campaign trail
• Bernie Sanders raised over $6 million in just 24 hours after announcing his campaign

The race for the 2020 US Presidency is heating up. The Democratic Party has seen the field of potential candidates to run against President Donald Trump continue to grow, but the question is who will emerge? Joe Biden’s odds continue to shorten – even though he has yet to announce – but is he the best bet? Let’s examine the odds and see where the value lies.

2020 Democratic Candidate Odds

Odds taken on 02/21/19.

Biden Sees His Odds Improve

We’ve seen Joe Biden’s average odds to win the 2020 Democratic Party nomination improve since late January, as he was at +1200 at that point, but is now at +970 across a number of online sportsbooks. What’s interesting is that he hasn’t even announced that he’s in the running yet. For now, though, what we can attribute those odds to are reports that he’s getting closer to an announcement.

Democrat Joe Biden in Munich: America today is “an embarrassment” pic.twitter.com/VyhmTOKkuk

— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) February 17, 2019

The challenge is that while all indications show that he’ll run, there has been some hesitation on his part. Is he just waiting for everyone to join the field first and announce last? Or is it that Biden really doesn’t have as good of a shot at winning as many people think?

RealClearPolitics, which does poll roundups, shows that Biden leads several primary polls by as much as 11%. A Morning Consult poll showed that 30% of Democratic primary votes support Biden, which is vastly better than Bernie Sanders in second (21%) and just Kamala Harris in third (11%).

A lot of Biden’s appeal is based on name recognition. What are his actual policies? How good will he fare in debates? Will Barrack Obama support him? On top of that, he’s a traditional Democrat whereas many feel the party has been pulled to the left. He would undoubtedly be the favorite if he were to enter the race, but whether he can withstand a grueling campaign trail remains to be seen.

Given those polls and the fact that he’s behind Harris and Beto O’Rourke, it seems like Biden is a good bet.

Harris Stumbles a Bit

Although Harris is viewed as the current favorite, there’s no question that she’s lost a bit of her luster. This is going to be a long, contentious year and although it’s early, she’s had a couple of self-inflicted wounds.

There was Reefergate, which in fairness to her didn’t accurately portray what she said. What circulated was that she had smoked marijuana in college while listening to Snoop Dogg and Tupac, who hadn’t even started their careers at the time. At any rate, her father chimed in and distanced himself from her when she claimed that smoking marijuana was part of her Jamaican heritage. It’s not a good look.

WATCH: Sen. Kamala Harris asked about Jussie Smollett case after dining with Rev. Al Sharpton in NYC https://t.co/KTebfRW6GJ pic.twitter.com/P1qw0pKwjD

— The Hill (@thehill) February 21, 2019

Secondly, Harris was also really quick to rush to judgement (via Twitter) in her support for Empire actor Jussie Smollett, who originally appeared to be the victim of a hate crime. However, once it was proven to be a hoax, Harris was asked about the incident and stumbled, not having an immediate response and then later saying she wants to see the facts come out.

These are minor things but the field is now cramped and the candidates need to stand out. Standing out for slip ups like this is going to cost her if she keeps this up.

Sanders Raises $6 Million in a Day

A lot of people weren’t sure what type of reaction Sanders’ announcement would garner but so far, so good. His campaign was shot out of a cannon as he didn’t have the type of roll out that Amy Klobuchar or Harris had, yet he still raised $6 million in the first 24 hours.

Bernie Sanders raised nearly $6 million in the 24 hours after his 2020 announcement, his campaign says.

What does that tell us about how he might do in the early primaries? CNN’s Harry Enten explains in #TheForecast https://t.co/Hl76cT80Xf pic.twitter.com/9uHyR92IRK

— CNN (@CNN) February 21, 2019

Many still view him as a longshot but at +800, he’s a decent value bet.

Don’t Bet on Beto… For Now

Beto O’Rourke might be a popular bet in some circles, but not in mine. He’s at +400 to win the Democratic nomination, but let’s face it: he hasn’t even announced that he’s running yet.

Very very proud of this community. We are the example that the United States of America needs right now. pic.twitter.com/IIM5q9CTeN

— Beto O’Rourke (@BetoORourke) February 12, 2019

A much better move for O’Rourke at this point – and for one of the candidates in the running – is to run as someone’s Vice President. If he teamed up with Biden, that would be the best ticket by far. It provides a traditional Democrat as President and an up-and-comer to appeal to the further-left with O’Rourke.

He’s a good speaker and has had a few viral moments, but it’s hard to believe he’ll pull this off on his own.