“National Emergency” Improving Trump’s 2020 Presidential Election Odds

• Donald Trump’s odds of being re-elected US President in 2020 are improving since he declared a national emergency.
• Trump declaration was to gain funding for his proposed border wall.
• Sixteen states filed suit, arguing the President is circumventing Congress in order to pay for the wall.

Donald Trump says there is a national emergency. Congress says there is not. And at the moment, it would appear that there are more American people in agreement with the President’s motives than there were prior to his declaration of a national emergency.

Why @realDonaldTrump's border wall national emergency is constitutional https://t.co/6K4mHlXZus

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) February 20, 2019

In less than a week since this event unfolded, Trump’s average odds of winning the US Presidency in 2020 have dropped from +210 to +110.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

*Odds taken on 02/21/19. Follow link for complete list.

Trump’s invoking the National Emergencies Act on February 15th allows him to funnel billions of dollars from other areas of the budget, such as the military and FEMA. This move gets him the money required to fund his desired wall along the US-Mexico border. He chose this option after Congress didn’t budget for his desired border wall.

When an Emergency is Not an Emergency

The first thing Trump did after declaring a national emergency was to race to Florida for a golfing weekend. Let’s face it, that’s about par for the course for him.

just in — a source at the Trump International Golf Club in Palm Beach just texted me this photo taken a short time ago.

omelette bar: pic.twitter.com/eWqMbdRTwW

— j.d. durkin (@jd_durkin) February 16, 2019

Sixteen states filed a lawsuit in the US District Court for the Northern District of California.

There are now legal challenges to Trump's national emergency declaration pending in three circuits – DC, the 9th, and the 5th. El Paso County and the Border Network for Human Rights filed a lawsuit last night in WD-Texas. Complaint: https://t.co/yge56mdvwf pic.twitter.com/rowEdMGusX

— Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) February 21, 2019

Their argument is that the President is doing an end run on Congress to get funding for the wall.

Trump's national emergency is facing opposition in the streets, courts and Congress. pic.twitter.com/Uz13PBPBki

— AJ+ (@ajplus) February 21, 2019

Congress, meanwhile, set the wheels in motion to attempt to grind Trump’s emergency to a halt. It put forth a resolution to terminate the declaration.

Nancy Pelosi vowed the House will "move swiftly" to pass legislation to block Trump’s national emergency declaration https://t.co/AAOAoc1i73

— POLITICO (@politico) February 21, 2019

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says that they are simply seeking to uphold the US Constitution.

Is Team Trump on Board?

Trump’s ability to utilize his power within the Republican base of voters has frequently proven strong enough to sway Senate Republicans to his side on key issues. This time, there’s indications that not everyone in the party is prepared to board the Trump train.

If four GOP senators join Democrats, they could pass legislation to block the president's national emergency. Here's what Republicans have said so far 👇https://t.co/UEKsgEYqkl

— POLITICO (@politico) February 21, 2019

If Democrats sway four Republican Senators across the floor, it will pass their resolution through Congress. One, Sen. Susan Collins, is already talking publicly about how she does not agree with Trump’s move.

Is There Staying Power?

Might this Trump bump be shortlived? One advantage he currently holds is that no clear Democratic frontrunner is emerging to challenge him in 2020.

White evangelical Christians appear to see Trump's wall as a defense against a kind of rolling cultural and demographic extinction event. They believe there is an emergency at the border and support the authoritarian exercise of power to combat it.https://t.co/B1SzncdhDr

— Greg Sargent (@GregTSargent) February 20, 2019

Once the Democrats have a Presidential candidate ready to drive the bus, that will be the true test of Trump’s re-elctability.

At this point, betting on any 2020 Presidential hopeful is a shot in the dark. Even if that wager is placed on the incumbent.