Over/Under For March Madness First Round Upsets Set at 7.5

• Upsets abound in March Madness, or do they?
• Books have a prop on how many no. 9-16 seeds will win in the first round.
• With the O/U at 7.5, what is the best bet to make here?

The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is, any way you cut it, madness.

After the first four play-in games, 64 teams duke it out until just one is left standing.

The opening round is where much of the mayhem takes place, and that’s where books are focusing there efforts, offering a prop on first-round upsets.

Just how rowdy will the upsets be in 2019? Let’s have a look.

2019 NCAA Tournament Opening Round Upsets

No Seeds Are Safe Anymore

Since 1985, when the tournament format was expanded to 64 teams, no No. 1 seed had ever fallen to a 16-seed, a stretch that lasted 135 games.

But in 2018, UMBC lit the wick and turned Virginia into powder.

That really happened… No. 16 UMBC really beat No. 1 Virginia#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/r51KHra4fU

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 17, 2018

With that, every higher seed has felt the sting of the upset to a lower counterpart in the opening round.

The second seed has surrendered just eight losses in their first game of the tourney, the most recent when Michigan State busted brackets across the globe when they took a tumble at the hands of Middle Tennessee.

Upset!!! Michigan State falls to Middle Tennessee State!!#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/7IeosJGysl

— Ali Thomas Sr (@opcpurdue) March 18, 2016

For sheer jaw-dropping wow factor, perhaps nothing beat the electric athleticism Florida Gulf Coast put on 2-seeded Georgetown in their amazing upset. I swear FGCU was dunking everything in sight.

Five years ago today (3/22/13), #15 Florida Gulf Coast upset #2 Georgetown 78-68 in the NCAA Tournament.#FGCU used the spotlight as a HUGE boost for coach Andy Enfield, the basketball program, and the university as a whole.

Let's see if @UMBCAthletics can do the same… pic.twitter.com/rh5dq0jOsH

— Ben Burton (@brb326) March 22, 2018

For a while, it was a curse to be a #3, as a run from 2013-2016 featured one of them dropping to a 14 -seed for four consecutive seasons. But they have seemed to right the ship, going a perfect 8-0 in the last two tournaments.

Meanwhile, being a 4-seed was a pretty steady spot, as teams won 80% of opening round games through 2017. Of course, like all things with the NCAA tourney, that exploded mightily last year, when Arizona and Wichita State were booted off the island.

This wasn't an upset. This was dominance!

No. 13 Buffalo knocks out No. 4 Arizona 89-68 pic.twitter.com/LPOTd8zHyZ

— SB Nation (@SBNation) March 16, 2018

Recent History is All Over the Map

If you look at the past five years of the tournament, the opening round has been volatile. Last year, there were nine wins by lesser seeds in the first round, and just six the previous tournament. But 2016 is where everything went bonkers, as 10 higher seeds were sent packing – the highest number in NCAA history.

A quick look at the top 4 seeds in the NCAA tournament, ranked by RPI. pic.twitter.com/puiT6QsSWL

— Scott Lindholm 📊 (@ScottLindholm) February 14, 2019

In 2015, just five teams were able to pull an upset, after we watched eight top seeds bite the dust in 2014.

Over the course of the tournament’s history, the average number of upsets in the opening round is 6.1 – but that’s not including any 8-9 matchup, as it’s deemed a toss-up. The fewest number of lower seeds to advance in an opening round was two, in 2007.

Lower Seeds Winning in the Opening Round NCAA Tournament

What’s the Best Bet Here?

Aside from Duke, who possess the likely top two picks in this summer’s NBA draft in Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, there is really no other team I trust getting out of the first round.

Here’s the thing about the NCAA Tournament: there’s no predicting the unpredictable. These are one-off games, often pitting a team in the national consciousness against a virtual unknown.

Even in the ultra-techno world, there is not enough staff on hand to study film of the Stephen F. Austins of Division I basketball.

Stephen F. Austin with the big-time upset over West Virginia 🏀https://t.co/wnlhFzjA0V #MarchMadness

— Dime (@DimeUPROXX) March 19, 2016

Throw in the fact that perhaps the shakiest athlete in televised sports is the young college basketball player, and you will see some unspeakable things in the clutch during close games.

While the buzzer-beating shots garner all the glory, it’s more often than not that those shots are preceded by terrible passes, poor shot selection, no communication on defense, and overall decision-melting in real time.

In short, there will be more of the same in 2019.

It’s madness, I tell you.

The pick: Over (-120)