Odds to Make 2019 NBA Playoffs After ASG: Pistons & Heat Getting Plus-Odds to Miss
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Updated: March 30, 2020 at 9:52 am EDTPublished:
- The Pistons and Heat are tied for the final playoff spot in the East.
- Miami has a tougher remaining schedule, including nine of its final 13 games on the road.
- Which of these teams should you bet on to miss the playoffs?
Two thirds of the NBA season is in the books and while there are five clear cut playoff teams in the East, there are five more squads fighting for the conference’s final three postseason berths.
#NBA #Sixers Eastern Conference standings pic.twitter.com/2EXYLhpLrn
— Keith Pompey (@PompeyOnSixers) February 14, 2019
The Pistons and Heat are currently tied for the final playoff spot, yet books are offering plus-odds on each team to miss the postseason.
Odds to Make the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference
| Team | Yes Odds | No Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | -300 | +250 |
| Detroit Pistons | -140 | +120 |
| Miami Heat | -120 | +100 |
| Orlando Magic | -135 | +115 |
| Washington Wizards | +500 | -650 |
*Odds taken on 02/19/19
Detroit and Miami each have an above 50% chance of making the playoffs according to ESPN’s BPI, while Charlotte, the seventh seed in the East, has only a 44.8% chance according to the model.
The Pistons Have the Easiest Path to the Postseason
After a disappointing December and January, the Pistons rebounded in February, winning four of their last five prior to the All-Star break.
63 PTS combined, @AndreDrummond (32p/17r) and @blakegriffin23 (31p/9r/9a) lead the @DetroitPistons to victory! #DetroitBasketball pic.twitter.com/YUZquQA3hI
— NBA (@NBA) February 12, 2019
While most of the teams around them stood pat at the deadline, Detroit made a pair of savvy moves acquiring Thon Maker and Wayne Ellington, who should help address their defense and outside shooting woes.
Wayne Ellington just wants to win with the Pistons.#Pistons pic.twitter.com/C2utcoJDL1
— Pistons Nation (@Pistons__Nation) February 10, 2019
They allow the ninth fewest points in the league and have the sixth easiest schedule remaining. Just 12 of their final 26 games are against teams with an above .500 record, and five of those 26 are against bottom feeders in the East (Atlanta, Chicago and Cleveland). Given their favorable schedule down the stretch, this is not a team I’d target to miss the playoffs.
The Heat Are Checking Out
Miami, on the other hand, is a different story. They limped into All-Star weekend losing six of their past eight and have one of the league’s most challenging schedules ahead of them.
The Heat has the most difficult schedule among the Heat, Pistons, Hornets and No. 6 Nets, who are 2.5 games ahead of Miami.https://t.co/SqvXLWsaJD
— Miami Herald Sports (@HeraldSports) February 12, 2019
Their remaining games include two contests against the Bucks, Raps, Celtics, and Nets, in addition to contests versus the Warriors, Thunder, Sixers and Rockets.
18 of Miami’s final 26 games are against teams currently holding playoff seeds, and nine of their final 13 overall are on the road.
That kind of schedule would be treacherous even for an elite team, let alone one teetering on the edge of the postseason bubble. A +100 price tag on Miami to miss the playoffs seems like a steal.
The Magic Are Poised to Make a Move
While the Heat’s schedule may doom their postseason hopes, another south Florida team is set to benefit from theirs. The Orlando Magic, who sit half a game behind the Pistons for the eighth seed, have the softest remaining schedule of the five East teams vying for the final three playoff spots.
Do playoffs await Orlando Magic? Favorable schedule could help them get there https://t.co/GC3M0lUWOX pic.twitter.com/pqE4MmARnQ
— Orlando Sentinel (@orlandosentinel) February 19, 2019
They’ve won five straight, and seven of eight overall, including victories over four teams ahead of them in the standings (Charlotte, Brooklyn, Indiana, and Milwaukee). Just eight of the Magic’s final 23 games are against teams with a winning record, including a stretch of seven straight against opponents who are below .500.
Orlando Magic last 5 Games
122-112 Win vs Minnesota
103-83 Win @ Milwaukee
124-108 Win @ Atlanta
118-88 Win @ New Orleans
127-89 Win vs CharlotteThey’re beating teams by an average of 22.8 pts in this 5 game win streak and they’re just .5 GB the Playoffs ???#NBA pic.twitter.com/j90F4AM0w4
— BetBlog (@betblog_com) February 15, 2019
Their -135 price tag to make the playoffs feels a bit short, but it offers by far the best value if you’re looking to back a team currently outside the postseason picture.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
