NCAAM North Carolina Tar Heels vs Louisville Cardinals Odds & Picks
By David Golokhov in College Basketball
Updated: April 2, 2020 at 10:25 am EDTPublished:
- The Cardinals beat the Tar Heels 83-62 at Chapel Hill on January 12th
- That loss was the biggest home defeat for the Tar Heels in the Roy Williams era
- The Tar Heels have won four straight when revenging a home loss to an opponent
How good are the Louisville Cardinals? We’re about to find out.
On Saturday, February 2nd, the No. 15 team in the country embarks on a stretch where they’ll face Top 25 teams in each of their next four games. It starts with the No. 9 North Carolina Tar Heels at the KFC Yum! Center on Saturday with the game tipping off at 2:00 PM ET.
North Carolina vs Louisville Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | -1.5 (-115) | -125 | O 157 -110 |
| Louisville | +1.5 (-105) | +105 | U 157 -110 |
*Odds taken 02/02
North Carolina Tar Heels Outlook
The Tar Heels have won four straight and eight of nine. Their lone loss in that span was to the very same Cardinals they’re facing on Saturday. However, that wasn’t just any loss, as the 83-62 defeat was one of the worst home losses in school history.
Louisville UNC postgame https://t.co/pFg72t9nzD
— Eric Crawford (@ericcrawford) January 12, 2019
Looking back to that game, the Tar Heels did a number of things that were uncharacteristic of them. They were out-rebounded 40-31 by the Cardinals; North Carolina is the ACC’s top rebounding team at +9.9.
And even the Cardinals aren’t that strong in that category as they just gave up 20 offensive rebounds to Wake Forest.
Also, the Tar Heels made just 3-of-29 from three-point land. They’re third in the ACC in three-point percentage.
That loss has lit a fire under the Tar Heels. They have won four straight and made a school-record 29 threes in the last two games. If they can keep that up and do a better job on the glass, they can get their revenge – even though they’re on the road.
The Tar Heels have been particularly reliable on the road, winning and covering six of their eight away games.
UNC vs Louisville Statistical Comparison
| 16-4 (6-2 away) | Record | 16-5 (12-1 home) |
| 6-1 (4th) | Conference Record (Standing) | 7-1 (T 1st) |
| +26.11 (7th) | Overall Efficiency Rating | +23.39 (13th) |
| 87.6 (3rd) | Points Per Game | 79.6 (38th) |
| +117.3 (12th) | Offensive Efficiency Rating | 116.9 (13th) |
| 72.8 (197) | Points Against Per Game | 67.6 (71st) |
| 91.2 (13th) | Defensive Efficiency Rating | 93.5 (24th) |
Louisville Cardinals Outlook
The Cardinals were just 10-5 and unranked when these teams met on January 12th. Since then, they’ve won six straight, jumped up to 15th in the AP Poll and are the No. 13 team in the nation according to the KenPom ratings.
There’s a lot to like about this team, which is really coming together under Chris Mack. Jordan Nwora is a star in the making and might be the ACC’s best player, and Steven Enoch looks like he’s an NBA-caliber center.
To earn the season sweep of the Tar Heels, they just need to do more of the same. They defended the three-point line well the first time and rebounded well. They won by 21, so even if they don’t play as well, they can still earn a narrow win and cover.
Jordan Nwora – 32 pts, 4ast, 10 reb
— LFL (@LiveFeedLville) January 17, 2019
The Tar Heels have a tendency to start slow, which is something the Cards can pounce on like they did in the first meeting (when they drained their first seven shots).
The Tar Heels have won four in a row but they trailed Virginia Tech by nine in the first half, were tied with a lousy Miami team at the half, and were losing at home to Notre Dame at the break. Louisville getting ahead early will really help their confidence.
Betting Trends
| North Carolina Trends | Louisville Trends |
|---|---|
| UNC has covered four straight road games | LOU has covered four straight |
| UNC is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win | LOU is 5-1-1 ATS in last 7 Saturday games |
| UNC is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a winning record | LOU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team with a winning record |
| UNC is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs ACC teams | LOU is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record |
| UNC has covered 4 straight following a win 20+ points | LOU is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points |
Previous Meeting
Louisville and North Carolina met on January 12th and the Cardinals absolutely flattened the Tar Heels 83-62. The Tar Heels were favored by 10.5 points.
That game was in Chapel Hill, which is why the result was so shocking. It was the worst home loss for the Tar Heels in the Roy Williams era. Rest assured that they’ll be motivated for some revenge.
The Tar Heels have won and covered four straight times when revenging a home loss to an opponent.
Picks
The Cardinals are playing well right now and while they have some impressive wins on the resume, they are still just 4-5 in Quadrant 1 games.
✈️ LOUISVILLE #CarolinaSZN pic.twitter.com/agGjrK9Qb1
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) February 2, 2019
The Tar Heels are angry after getting blown out on their home court. It was an uncharacteristically bad performance from them. They’ll clean up the mistakes, shoot efficiently and rebound better, and get their revenge.
Pick: Tar Heels +1 and under 156.0
Sports Writer
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
