Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks Odds & Predictions
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Updated: April 1, 2020 at 2:18 pm EDTPublished:
- Texas Tech visits Kansas for a massive Big 12 game tomorrow (Sat., Feb. 2).
- The Jayhawks’ streak of 14 straight conference titles is in serious jeopardy.
- But is it wise to bet against a Bill Self team that’s 12-0 at home?
The legendary run of the Kansas Jayhawks (16-5, 5-3 Big 12) atop the Big 12 may finally come to an end this year. The winners (or co-winners) of 14 straight regular-season championships, Kansas is just 5-3 in conference play so far, trailing Kansas State and Baylor by half a game, and tied with two other teams.
One of the teams they are tied with happens to be the Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-4, 5-3 Big 12), whom Kansas will host tomorrow at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence (4:00 PM ET).
Texas Tech vs Kansas Odds, Spread and Total
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | +4.0 (-110) | OFF | O 133.0 (-110) |
| Kansas | -4.0 (-110) | OFF | U 133.0 (-110) |
The Jayhawks opened as 4-point favorites with the total set at 133.0. That might seem like a low O/U for a Kansas home game – and it is a full five points lower than any Kansas game this year – but this Red Raider defense is legit.
Red Raiders Outlook
Texas Tech has won its last two over Arkansas (67-64, home) and TCU (84-65, home), putting an end to a three-game losing streak.
Chris Beard’s team still hasn’t surrendered more than 69 points all year, and their under-70 streak is at 23 games in total dating back to last season.
Their offense is limited and overly reliant on future first-round pick Jarrett Culver (18.5 PPG), but it’s not as anemic as it appears at first glance.
No college player has improved their NBA stock more than Jarrett Culver this season. Just closed out West Virginia by dropping 18 points (all in the second half) on 6-8 shooting, 6-6 from the line.
He’s so good at getting to his spots. Has blossomed as a offensive initiator. pic.twitter.com/rjeOLbMk5G
— Ricky O’Donnell (@SBN_Ricky) January 3, 2019
They are 250th in PPG (70.7) largely because they play at a very slow tempo (264th). They are in the top 100 in terms of offensive efficiency and have hit 78-plus points eight times this year.
When either Davide Moretti (10.4 PPG) or Matt Mooney (10.7 PPG) is able to step up and supplement Culver on offense, the Red Raiders become exponentially harder to defend.
But both guards have a tendency to go silent for games at a time. Moretti has scored eight or fewer points in nine games this year, while Mooney has been held to eight-or-less in 10 games.
Texas Tech vs Kansas Statistical Comparison
| 17-4 (2-2 away) | Record | 16-5 (12-0 home) |
| 5-3 (T 3rd) | Conference Record (Standing) | 5-3 (T 3rd) |
| +22.15 (14th) | Overall Efficiency Rating | +21.38 (16th) |
| 70.7 (T 250th) | Points Per Game | 76.7 (T 99th) |
| 107.5 (99th) | Offensive Efficiency Rating | 112.6 (30th) |
| 56.8 (3rd) | Points Against Per Game | 70.3 (T 151st) |
| 85.4 (3rd) | Defensive Efficiency Rating | 91.2 (14th) |
Jayhawks Outlook
Losers of two straight and three of four, Kansas is having all kinds of problems right now. Since losing star center Udoka Azubuike for the year, the team is just 5-4, including a 65-64 setback to last-place West Virginia.
They do not have the elite guard play they have in recent years, and now are thin in the front court, as well.
Bill Self on the ceiling of this Kansas team: “I don’t think our ceiling is as high as it’s been in years past. That’s not being negative, it’s being factual.”
Adds they’d probably be ranked #1 if Azubuike was healthy.
— Jeff Barker (@JeffBarker_) January 30, 2019
That said, the Jayhawks remain a perfect 12-0 at home, and even without Azubuike, have managed home wins over Iowa State (12th at KenPom), TCU (29th), and Texas (32nd), plus a road win over Baylor (33rd).
Dedric Lawson (19.2 PPG, 10.9 RPG) is piling up stats the way most predicted, and the hyperathletic Ochai Agbaji had a breakout game last time out (24 points, 7 rebounds at Texas).
Ochai Agbaji in action against Texas pic.twitter.com/oPsgtwTZKn
— Peter Arigu (@Daveezzy) January 30, 2019
If Lagerald Vick (14.5 PPG, 45.3 3P%) recovers from back-to-back 10-point performances, the offense will be fine.
Covering a four-point spread against this Texas Tech defense may require more than “fine,” though. Kansas hasn’t covered a single game in almost a month, going 0-5 ATS since winning at Baylor (73-68) as 3.5-point favorites.
Betting Trends
| Texas Tech Trends | Kansas Trends |
|---|---|
| TT is 7-13-1 ATS overall | KU is 8-13 ATS overall |
| TT is 1-3 ATS away | KU is 4-7 ATS at home |
| TT is 2-2 ATS as an underdog | KU is 8-10 ATS as a favorite |
| TT is 2-5-1 ATS in Big 12 games | KU is 2-6 ATS in Big 12 games |
| TT is 1-4 ATS in its last five games | KU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games |
| The UNDER is 13-7 in all TT games | The OVER is 11-9 in all KU games |
Recent H2H History
The teams split the season series last year, with Texas Tech winning 85-73 at Kansas, and Kansas answering back with a 74-72 win in Lubbock.
However, prior to last year, Kansas had not lost to Texas Tech since March 2009, a string of 16 straight victories.
ATS & Total Picks
Four points is a big number against a defense this good, especially for a Kansas team that could get dominated on the glass and struggles from the three-point line.
Picks: Texas Tech +4 (-110) and Under 133.0 (-110)
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
