Injuries Are Taking a Toll on LeBron and AD’s NBA MVP Odds

• Injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis have lengthened their NBA MVP odds 
• Has James Harden’s torrid scoring clip sealed his second straight MVP crown?
• What’s the best bet to make?

It’s never good for business when two of the five best players in the league are on the shelf.

Coincidentally, as the Lakers plummet without LeBron James and the Pelicans’ hopes fade minus Anthony Davis, the two stars’ 2019 NBA MVP odds have lengthened considerably.

Meanwhile, reigning MVP James Harden is putting together a body of work the NBA hasn’t seen since Wilt Chamberlain, a player who was miles more talented and physically more dominant than any opponent on the court.

Can a return to health reignite what’s now a virtual one-horse race?

2019 NBA MVP Odds

LeBron Injury the Longest in His Career

The last we saw him, James and the Lakers were the showcase game on the Christmas Day slate, and handling their business against the defending two-time champion Golden State Warriors.

Up 14 and in complete control in the third quarter, James felt something pop in his groin. He hasn’t played since. As of Friday night, James had missed 15 straight games – the longest stretch of his career.

LeBron James' injury in a nutshell from a league source:

“You don't hear a pop if you only have a grade 2 groin strain." pic.twitter.com/8daMFJm0TW

— 👑 Brandon “Scoop B” Robinson (@ScoopB) January 26, 2019

Just a week prior, James’ odds at a fifth MVP crown was +510. He’s now at +1200, and even worse? There’s still no definitive timeline to his return. In the month he’s been out, the Lakers have gone from a fourth seed in the West at 20-14, to ninth, sitting outside the playoff picture at 25-24.

https://twitter.com/CHHTSNetwork/status/1088058900107218944

Davis Injury Could End Pelicans’ Playoff Hopes

Meanwhile, a team that was already struggling with their all-world forward in the lineup is in real trouble with him out of it.

Davis injured his finger in a January 18th loss in Portland, and the timetable for his return could be anywhere from one week to a month.

Here's the play where Anthony Davis injures his finger. He swipes at the ball, catches Zach Collins' elbow and you can immediately see the pain on his face.

We're still waiting to hear about the severity of the injury. The good news is that he was able to finish the game. pic.twitter.com/uDb2hknxUG

— Will Guillory (@WillGuillory) January 19, 2019

Even with Davis, who was averaging 29.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists while shooting 50.8% from the field, the Pelicans were just 21-25, in 12th in the conference. They’ve dropped two out of three since, and they just happen to be in a brutal stretch of games.

8 of the Pelicans' next 13 games are against playoff teams.

If Davis' injury forces him to miss a full four weeks from today, he would miss all of those games.

The injury plague keeps killing New Orleans. https://t.co/aSl1sBIvSx

— Andrew Doak (@AndrewPDoak) January 23, 2019

After two weeks into the regular season, AD’s MVP odds were +410. They’re now at +1400, easily the longest odds he’s faced this season.

Can a Healthy James and AD Catch Harden?

There is a chance both could make a push, but it’s going to need to be something significant, both in team wins and in individual accomplishment – though it might not matter at this point.

Because right now, James Harden is bending the realm of what kind of scoring is possible on an NBA court. I mean, look at this:

James Harden has now led all players in scoring in 22 straight games.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the only longer such streak in a season is 40 by Wilt Chamberlain in 1961-62. pic.twitter.com/RsNY5JfqWD

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 26, 2019

Harden will eventually regress, with Chris Paul and Clint Capela returning to add balance to a roster that currently looks more G-League than NBA, minus the Beard.

James Harden is in absolute fire scoring 61 in MSG 🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/xmenShN6Fd

— the Sports ON Tap Brothers (@thesportsontap) January 24, 2019

But how far is arguable. The Rockets have proven that their best option is giving the ball to Harden, allowing him to unleash holy hell on the court. On his current tear of 30+ points over his last 22 games, he’s guided them to a 16-6 record and into the playoff picture.

On his current tear of 30+ points over his last 22 games, Harden has guided the Rockets to a 16-6 record and into the playoff picture.

For now, Harden’s the only bet to make for MVP, and it’s not even close.

Looking for a long shot? Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t really done anything to lose the pole position in the MVP chase, and is still within range to compete with Harden, but at +350, there’s still a significant gap he’s got to make up.