Trump’s Odds of Winning 2020 US Presidential Election Getting Longer as Shutdown Lingers

• The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2020 US Presidential election have jumped from +120 to +180 since January 10th
• Is Trump risking his second term in the White House by allowing the government shutdown to linger?
• Four of the last five elected Republican Presidents gained a second term

Is Donald Trump’s government shutdown shutting him down from re-election as President of the United States in 2020? Is his obsession with a wall along the US-Mexico border in the process of walling him off from a second term in the White House?

Though he remains the betting favorite, in a 12-day span since January 10th, the odds of Trump winning a second term as President have lengthened from +120 to +180.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

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The government shutdown will enter its 33rd day on Wednesday and is affecting some 800,000 US federal employees. It is the longest government shutdown in US history.

Owning the Shutdown

Trump may live to regret boasting on camera during his White House meeting with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senator Chuck Schumer that he would own the shutdown.

As the shutdown hits four weeks, remember what Trump said on Dec. 11.

Trump: If we don't get what we want … I will shut down the government … So I will take the mantle. I will be the one to shut it down. I'm not going to blame you for it. pic.twitter.com/z1ptWRo7Nk

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) January 19, 2019

A Hill/HarrisX poll taken January 19-20 showed that 46% of registered American voters who identify politically as independents feel that Trump and the congressional GOP are primarily responsible for the government closure. That’s a seven-point increase from a similar poll conducted December 30-31.

New findings from latest Hill-HarrisX poll:
-Independents increasingly blame Trump rather than Dems
-GOP voters more likely to blame own party than Dem voters
-Trump approvers more likely to favor sticking to position https://t.co/Z1Vzr8l4vp pic.twitter.com/Stm5RcuO5b

— Matthew Sheffield (@mattsheffield) January 22, 2019

Just 17% blamed the Congressional Democrats for the shutdown.

Even some Trump supporters are beginning to express displeasure with the President they voted for in 2016 over the current shutdown.

Trump voters on the #TrumpShutdown:

❌ "It's starting to turn people like me away."

❌ "The wall is getting out of hand. It's too much. It's ridiculous. I'm sick of seeing it, I'm sick of hearing about it."

❌ "Something miraculous has to happen for me to vote for him again." https://t.co/9XiH0HaR0U

— Nancy Pelosi (@TeamPelosi) January 22, 2019

A Harvard poll indicated that 55% of American voters disapprove of a plan to build a wall along the US-Mexico border.

Trump is Dug in, But Can He Dig Out?

If there’s one thing Trump has proven willing to do it’s to fight, and to fight dirty. He’ll happily get deep into the muck.

Never seen @senatemajldr and Republicans so united on an issue as they are on the Humanitarian Crisis & Security on our Southern Border. If we create a Wall or Barrier which prevents Criminals and Drugs from flowing into our Country, Crime will go down by record numbers!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 22, 2019

In this instance, can he rake up enough muck that will stick to the Democrats when its apparent that few outside of his evidently slowly-shrinking base is buying his flawed logic on the need to spend $5.7 billion to construct a border wall?

The 10 weeks of testimony at the El Chapo trial have revealed that his innovative smuggling network typically went through legal checkpoints — not isolated stretches of the U.S.-Mexico border where a wall might be an obstacle https://t.co/BujUrwLFCU

— The New York Times (@nytimes) January 22, 2019

Yet while his numbers are slipping, he’s still in charge. No one is gaining on him significantly in the odds. Democrats Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris, who officially announced her candidancy for President on Martin Luther King Day, held steady at odds of +1000.

Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign raised $1.5 million in its first 24 hours https://t.co/3JwSJvtKYz pic.twitter.com/tbSewi6dAX

— POLITICO (@politico) January 23, 2019

Like Trump, other Democratic contenders including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders saw their odds of taking up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. following the 2020 Presidential election lengthen.

Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders also saw their odds of taking up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. following the 2020 Presidential election lengthen.

Four of the last five elected Republican Presidents were given a second term by the electorate. But as the shutdown continues, America enters uncharted waters, and Trump may need to build a wall to protect himself from the damage he’s doing to his brand.