With Federer Out, Djokovic Becomes Odds-On Australian Open Favorite Entering QFs

• Defending champion Roger Federer has been eliminated from the Australian Open
• Top seed and favorite Novak Djokovic has dropped to negative odds since Federer’s ouster
• Entering the quarterfinals, can anyone topple Djokovic?

It was Roger over and out in the Round of 16 at the Australian Open, and that has only served to ramp up the already-prohibitive odds that Novak Djokovic will win the first Grand Slam event of the year.

Federer knocked out by Greek wunderkind Tsitsipas https://t.co/7O3g4odOCv pic.twitter.com/98eD8liRIp

— Reuters (@Reuters) January 20, 2019

Minus Federer, sportsbooks have dropped the odds of a Djokovic victory down to -120.

2019 Australian Open Men’s Singles Odds

Aside from Djokovic, Rafael Nadal (+180) is the only other player who is given odds of winning of less than +1000.

#AusOpen Worth noting that none of the 2018 semi finalists remain in the draw for 2019.
Federer, Cilic, Edmund, Chung, Wozniacki, Halep, Kerber & Mertens are all out.
In fact only 3 of the 16 quarter finalists from 2018 remain:
Rafa Nadal
Karolina Pliskova
Elina Svitolina

— Chris Brown (@ChrisBrownSport) January 21, 2019

But Nadal’s lone Aussie Open title came in 2009.

Can You Make a Case for Rafa?

Not really. Djokovic holds a 27-25 lead in head-to-head meetings against Nadal, but on hard surfaces, the edge swings dramatically in favor of Djokovic, where he maintains an 18-7 edge.

Since Federer won his first Grand Slam ('03 Wimbledon) the Big 3 have won 51/62 Slams.

Since Nadal won his first Grand Slam ('05 French) the Big 3 have won 47/55 Slams.

Since Djokovic won his first Grand Slam ('08 #AussieOpen) the Big 3 have won 37/44 Slams.

— Remy (@gambit1077) January 21, 2019

In his last eight Australian Open appearances, Nadal has lost three times in the final – in 2012, 2014 and 2017 – and he’s also been bounced four times at the quarterfinal stage, including last year.

It’s All About Novak

As he readies to face No. 8 seed Kei Nishikori in Tuesday’s quarterfinals, Djokovic has looked solid. He’s dropped just two sets through four rounds of play, one of them via tie breaker. He’s won at least four games in every set he’s played.

The world’s No. 1 player looked like his old dominating self so far, playing confidently and appearing to be at the top of his fitness as he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16. And he’s beaten Nishikori in 15 of 17 previous meetings.

Nishikori required five sets to get past Pablo Carreño Busta 6-7 (8), 4-6, 7-6 (4), 6-4, 7-6 (10-8), the third time in four matches that Nishikori needed to go the full five-set distance in order to secure a victory.

Djokovic whipped Nishikori 6–3, 6–4, 6–2 in last year’s U.S. Open semifinal.

Is Anyone Else Worth a Look?

We’ve already ruled out Nishikori, but is there any other player in the final eight who is worth wagering on?

Canada’s Milos Raonic is often intriguing. He’s reached one Grand Slam final and eight times made it to the quarterfinal stage of a major, but has never been a winner. His best showing in Australia was when he reached the semifinals in 2016. Raonic has defeated Lucas Pouille, his quarterfinal opponent, three times.

Stefanos Tsitsipas, 13 years old:

“Favorite idol?”

– Roger Federer

“Where do you see yourself in ten years?”

– I don’t know, but I will do my best to be in the top. pic.twitter.com/Ho4xmuBHYl

— Alex Theodoridis (@AlexTheodorid1s) January 20, 2019

Unseeded Franes Tiafoe must get past second seed Nadal. The other quarterfinal pits No. 22 Roberto Bautista Agut against 14th-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas, who knocked off Federer and has become the darling of the tourney, labeled the next great thing by John McEnroe

That’s all well and good, but we liked Djokovic here from the get-go, and he’s done nothing to change our opinion that this is his tournament to win.