Zverev’s Australian Open Odds Fall; Is there Value?

• Alexander Zverev’s odds to win the Australian Open have jumped from +950 to +1200
• Is the German player and No. 4 seed worth a wager at those odds?
• Zverev is 0-14 lifetime in Grand Slam events

Watching Alexander Zverev on a tennis court often gives off a similar sheen to those late-night infomercials that reel in unsuspecting dreary-eyed viewers.

At face value, it looks at though there’s a great deal to be had here. But once the investment is made, the product rarely delivers on the appeal that was initially offered.

In his 10 previous Grand Slam appearances as a seeded player, Alexander #Zverev has never outperformed his seeding (i.e. being n.17 in the seeding and making it to round of 16).

— Raoul Ruberti (@raoulruberti) January 17, 2019

Zverev’s odds of winning the 2019 Australian Open across leading sportsbooks have gotten longer, jumping from +950 to +1200.

2019 Australian Open Men’s Singles Odds

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You look at that price, and the valuation is going to be tempting, just like that third donut in the box looks so enticing after you’ve already eaten the first two. But as tasty as it might seem, in the long run, you will pay the cost of getting all sweet over Zverev’s long odds.

There are reasons why he’s listed at that price.

There’s Much Appeal to Betting Zverev

No less a source than six-time Australian Open champion Roger Federer threw his support behind Zverev as the next big thing. Speaking to reporters during the tournament this week, Federer predicted that Zverev, 21, would be the next new member of the Grand Slam champions club.

The youngest player among the ATP’s top 10 ranking, Zverev has been a steady presence among the world’s top five players for over a year. He’s won 10 ATP singles titles, including last year’s ATP Finals, and he’s the only player outside of the big four of Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray with three Masters titles.

Nadal has also predicted that one day, Zverev will be the world’s No. 1 player, and in fact, he was the No. 1-ranked player on the planet as a junior, winning the 2014 Australian Open junior title.

Then There’s Also This . . .

Zverev barely survived his second round Australian Open match against French veteran Jeremy Chardy, 31, winning a five-set marathon 7-6 (5), 6-4, 5-7, 6-7 (4), 6-1 from the world’s 36th-ranked player.

That was tough!

Alexander #Zverev struggles past Jeremy Chardy 7-6 6-4 5-7 6-7 6-1 to join Alex Bolt in R3 #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/Cgoh9Zc6a4

— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) January 17, 2019

In Grand Slam play, Zverev is 0-14, with an overall match record of 24-14. His best performance came at last year’s French Open, where he reached the quarterfinals. He’s never got past the third round of the Australian Open.

Now is Not the Time

Zverev may very well be the next tennis superstar, but he’s offered no evidence on the sport’s biggest stages that he’s ready to make that leap.

Nothing but respect from Alexander Zverev to @jimchardy 👊#AusOpen pic.twitter.com/ICq7X84fHd

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 17, 2019

Yes, he has great potential, but all potential means is that you haven’t done anything yet. Until Zverev displays some mettle in a Grand Slam event, he’ll be the Cleveland Indians of tennis – looks like he can get it done, but ultimately, it’s always wait until next time.