Trump State of the Union Odds and Predictions

• U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the State of the Union address on January 29th
• Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has cautioned against Trump delivering the speech in front of Congress because of security concerns
• Will Trump err on the side of caution or be his usual defiant self?

What is the state of the State of the Union address? That’s a good question, and one which has led online betting sites to post a series of prop bets on how the current U.S. government shutdown might impact the annual speech to the nation.

Will the State of the Union be postponed? That hasn’t happened since the Challenger disaster. https://t.co/ltjnjqO8W7

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 17, 2019

U.S. President Ronald Reagan delayed the slated January 28th, 1986, State of the Union address following the Challenger disaster earlier that day, in which seven astronauts were killed in an explosion during the space shuttle launch.

Odds State of the Union Address Takes Place on Jan. 29, 2019

*Wager cutoff 1/20/2019
Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi sent a formal letter to Republican U.S. President Donald Trump requesting that he postpone the SOTU address, citing security concerns around Congress due to the number of employees on furlough during the current government shutdown.

Pelosi spox: The Office of the Spkr has been contacted by a furloughed DHS employee who expressed serious concerns that the dept has insufficient staffing levels to sufficiently manage the security needs for the upcoming State of the Union..due to furloughs of critical staff

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 16, 2019

Kirstjen Nielsen, Trump’s Secretary for the Department of Homeland Security, was quick to refute the notion that safety might be in any way compromised during the President’s planned speech.

The Department of Homeland Security and the US Secret Service are fully prepared to support and secure the State of the Union. We thank the Service for their mission focus and dedication and for all they do each day to secure our homeland.

— Secretary Kirstjen M. Nielsen (@SecNielsen) January 16, 2019

Pelosi does have the power to prevent the speech from happening in Congress. For the President to address a joint session of Congress, as is tradition for a SOTU address, resolutions must be passed by both the Senate and House approving such a speech. Thus far, no resolutions have been passed, and the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives could refuse to provide its approval.

But will Pelosi want to lead such a measure and risk potential public backlash when Trump’s approval rating is steadily slipping as the government shutdown continues?

Where Will State of the Union Be Delivered?

Wager cut-off 1/20/2019
Pelosi can prevent the SOTU address from being delivered in front of Congress, but she can’t put a halt to Trump making the speech somewhere else.

“This is Donald Trump’s wake-up call. She did to Donald Trump what is his worst nightmare — take away his audience. This is like taking away your teenager’s cell phone,” CNN’s @jamiegangel says of Nancy Pelosi’s letter to Trump on the State of the Union. https://t.co/aMXOBKYudM pic.twitter.com/8i2L5DL4mO

— The Situation Room (@CNNSitRoom) January 16, 2019

And really, has there been a President who needed the spotlight of the camera and the adoring applause of his supporters more than the current one does?

Odds Trump Submits State of the Union Address to Pelosi in Writing

*Wager cutoff 1/20/2019
It isn’t mandatory that the SOTU address be made in a public forum. Up until Woodrow Wilson in 1913, U.S. Presidents simply delivered it via a letter to Congress.

Trump might kill both the televised State of the Union *and* the White House Correspondents' Dinner, the two most tedious events of the political calendar. #MAGA https://t.co/YOBk0qEpKz

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 16, 2019

Were he to acquiesce to Pelosi’s request and deliver a hand-written SOTU address, he’d risk being viewed as a Nancy boy by his base.