Darius Leonard Enters Week 17 as Defensive Rookie of the Year Favorite

• Colts’ rookie Darius Leonard has taken the lead as the favorite for DROY
• Can the league’s leading tackler take the honor?
• Or is now the time to jump on Derwin James at longer odds?

The battle for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year honors has tilted back and forth on a near week-to-week basis.

The clear front-runners for DROY are linebacker Darius Leonard of the Colts and safety Derwin James of the Chargers.

With James as the favorite for nearly the past month, Leonard has taken over with the shortest average odds to win DROY at -160.

Odds To Win 2018 NFL DROY

*All odds taken 12/27

Can Leonard Win Despite Pro Bowl Snub?

After trailing James throughout December, Leonard now finds hmself the favorite heading into Week 17.

This despite being snubbed in 2019 Pro Bowl nominations.

If you haven’t been watching the Colts, Leonard has been a beast for their defense with 23 more tackles than the next closest player in the league.

He has 24 more than Cowboys’ rookie Leighton Vander Esch who owns DROY odds of +500.

#Colts rookie Darius Leonard (@dsleon45) has more tackles than the AFC #ProBowl OLBs combined!

Von Miller – 45
Jadeveon Clowney- 37
Dee Ford- 45

(127 combined)

THE MANIAC- 146 (13 games) pic.twitter.com/9WWGcqBfv4

— Andrew Prue (@AndrewJAPrue) December 19, 2018

Leonard’s 153 combined tackles are already nine more than the three players who led the league last year with 144. 2017 also saw no rookie record more than 96 total tackles.

Keep in mind Leonard has both missed a game due to injury this year and still has one remaining game to play.

After learning he’d be left out of the Pro Bowl, Leonard vowed to record 40 tackles in Week 16. While he came up way short of that lofty goal, he did finish with nine and has recorded 20 total tackles over the past two weeks.

Let me see if I understand this…

Darius Leonard
» leads the entire league in tackles (by 22!)
» has more than any rookie through 13 games in NFL history
» has 7 sacks, 2nd most among rookies
» 4 forced fumbles, 7 PDs, INT

… and still doesn't get a Pro Bowl bid?

— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) December 19, 2018

Has The Value Moved To Betting James?

I was a big fan of the value James presented when the season started when he could be had for average odds of between +1100 and +1200.

The value slowly evaporated as the season wore on and I spoke of the better bet that Leonard presented back on December 14 at +170.

But now the tables have flipped with James being offered at that same +170. James was selected to the Pro Bowl and has 11 total tackles the past two games.

His 99 tackles on the season are 29th overall and he’s among the league’s best in numerous defensive categories.

Chargers rookie safety Derwin James has recorded 16 total pressures in 2018, giving him the single-season record for total pressures by a rookie safety in the PFF era (2006-Present) with a game to go. pic.twitter.com/mZmMp0sfLi

— PFF (@PFF) December 25, 2018

If you go off Pro Bowls, the odds may be against Leonard to win the award, presenting James as the better option.

Six of the past ten winners of DROY have also been nominated to the Pro Bowl. That trend held true last year and also in three of the past four years.

No ILB has won the award since Luke Kuechly in 2012. However, Kuechly was one such example to win despite receiving a Pro Bowl nomination.

Much like Leonard, Kuechly led the league in tackles with 164 that year, a figure Leonard has every opportunity to pass this week.

Derwin James has earned a higher grade than every player selected before him in the 2018 #NFL Draft.

Grading all 32 first rounders after Week 16: https://t.co/fVCW5kX9Lx pic.twitter.com/bKFi7DGT9a

— PFF LA Chargers (@PFF_Chargers) December 25, 2018

At this point to me it comes down to what sort of position you have on the DROY prop already.

It may be hard to deny the league’s leading tackler of a Pro Bowl and DROY. The Colts and Leonard will also have one last chance on prime time Sunday night against the Titans to make the playoffs and make an impression on voters.

If both come up big it could be the clincher for voters.

If you think the Pro Bowl snub is a sign of things to come then your man is James.

And finally, if you already have a position on Leonard at +170 or higher, then hedging a bet on James now at the same price should allow you lock in a profit no matter the outcome.