Odds Favor Falcons Moving On From OC Steve Sarkisian in 2019
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: April 7, 2020 at 6:20 pm EDTPublished:
- The Falcons have been a major disappointment this season
- Atlanta’s offense has sputtered during a five-game losing streak
- The odds point to Steve Sarkisian losing his job as OC
The Atlanta Falcons are a hot mess.
They’ve lost five straight, their offense is regressing, and the winds of change appear to be blowing in their direction.
The jobs of Head Coach Dan Quinn and General Manager Thomas Dimitroff appear safe, so where does that leave Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian?
I'll reiterate what I said last week: This offensive effort is going to get Steve Sarkisian fired.
— The Falcoholic (@TheFalcoholic) December 9, 2018
The odds are against Sarkisian returning to Atlanta for another year.
Odds Steve Sarkisian is Falcons OC Week 1 of 2019?
| Will Steve Sarkisian be the OC of the Falcons for Game 1 of the 2019 Regular Season | Odds |
|---|---|
| YES | -110 |
| NO | -130 |
Shanahan vs Sarkisian
Under Kyle Shanahan’s guidance, the Falcons were arguably the NFL’s most potent offense in 2016.
They led the league in points, yards per play, and were second in yards per game. But it’s been a completely different story since Sarkisian took over as OC.
2016 vs 2017/18 Falcons Offensive Stats
| 33.8 | Points Per Game | 23.2 |
| 415.8 | Yards Per Game | 370.4 |
| 6.7 | Yards Per Play | 5.85 |
| 120.5 | Rush Yards Per Game | 98.3 |
Atlanta’s offense has performed significantly worse under Sarkisian, despite having most of the key pieces from their 2016 team in place.
They’ve been especially bad during their current five-game losing streak, scoring 20 points just once and committing 10 turnovers.
The Matt Ryan pick-sixhttps://t.co/HtyOt9mJZ5
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 9, 2018
They’ve also failed to protect Matt Ryan, who’s taken 48 hits since Week 9, the most by any quarterback during that stretch.
Red Zone Disappearing Act
Perhaps the most perplexing part of Sarkisian’s run in Atlanta has been his inability, or unwillingness, to scheme more red zone targets for Julio Jones.
Let’s play the suddenly perennial game of: how many redzone snaps can the Falcons have and NOT target Julio Jones?
— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) September 7, 2018
Jones leads the league in receiving yards but has just 11 red zone targets this season. That ranks 41st in the NFL, behind guys like Jeff Heuerman, Zay Jones, Sterling Shepard, and teammate Austin Hooper.
Not exactly a who’s who of prolific NFL receivers.
https://twitter.com/kurtancall/status/942965397652934656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Not surprisingly, the Falcons red zone efficiency rate was in the bottom-third of the league in 2017, and while it has improved this season, they’re still converting just 50% of their red zone trips on the road.
Will Sark Stay?
Sarkisian’s tenure in Atlanta hasn’t been a smashing success, but there are some positives to draw from.
Sure, they rank dead last in rushing this season, but Ryan is completing a career high 70.5% of his passes, Jones has 171 more receiving yards than any other wideout, and the Falcons have a 3rd down conversation rate of 46%.
Is that enough to save Sark’s job? My lean is no, but we’ll find out very soon.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
