Will Packers Joe Philbin Actually Win a Challenge in Week 15?

• After Mike McCarthy was fired, Joe Philbin was named interim Head Coach of the Packers
• Despite winning his Packers debut against the Falcons, Philbin lost both of his challenges in the first 83 seconds
• Will Philbin go for the red flag again in Week 15? And will he be successful?

After an up and down season, the Packers moved on from Mike McCarthy. They did so with offensive coordinator Joe Philbin.

Philbin was a pretty logical choice for the “interim” tag, with his 3.5 years of experience with Miami. And once the game was over, he looked like a great decision. The Packers picked up a 34-20 win.

But within the first 90 seconds, Philbin had fans scratching their heads. He became the first coach to ever use both challenges that quickly.

Oh…and he lost them.

Odds Joe Philbin Challenges a Play in Week 15

Odds taken 12/13.

And if he does reach for that red flag, will he be successful?

Odds Joe Philbin Wins a Challenge in Week 15

As you can see, sportsbooks are offering some interesting action on this.

Not only can you determine whether Philbin will go 0/3 (or four) in his Packers career, but you can choose how many times he’ll toss the red flag in Week 15.

Considering it’s a YES/NO outcome, it’s a bit surprising that Philbin winning a challenge actually pays better than losing one.

History Tells us Joe Philbin isn’t wrong often

When you look at the records, Joe Philbin wasn’t anything special as a head coach in Miami. He had two .500 seasons after going 7-9, and was fired after a 1-3 start.

But what did he get right? Challenges. Check this out:

Philbin Challenge History

That 7/8 in 2013 is pretty impressive. So is going 10/19 across four seasons. Before going 0/2 in that first game, Philbin had a better winning percentage on challenges than the outgoing Mike McCarthy (50.5%).

For a point of reference, he’s also better than Bill O’Brien (46.6%), Mike Tomlin (45.7%) and Vance Joseph. Joseph has won one challenge on eight tries in two years.

Full context from Packers OLB Clay Matthews on Falcons WR Julio Jones' two catches that interim coach Joe Philbin challenged on Atlanta's opening drive: "Those weren't catches." pic.twitter.com/mMwpzAbD1J

— Josh Tolentino (@JCTSports) December 10, 2018

And honestly? Neither of Philbin’s challenges were THAT egregious against the Falcons. Both were tight spots where the initial call could have gone either way.

Is it weird that he used them both in 80 seconds? Yes. Definitely. But at least he had a sense of humor about it.

What’s the Best Bet?

For Philbin, that was the second time in his career that he used both challenges given to him in a game. The first was November 24, 2013 against the Panthers. He won both of those.

Joe Philbin is the challenge champ 🏆🏆🏆

He used 2 challenges in the first 1:04 of the game.

Since 1999 when team's gained the ability to challenge, that is the fastest instance of a team using both of their challenges… EVER.#Packers @packers

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 9, 2018

Other than that, Philbin has been a one-challenge kind of guy. I wouldn’t expect him to get flag happy from here on out.

But will he throw one? That’s almost a certainty.

While it’s a real long shot, the Packers have a chance at the playoffs. And Philbin likely won’t want to give up the Packers job without a fight. So Green Bay is playing to win against the Bears.

I think Joe Philbin is a terrible head coach (he proved that in Miami) but I can't blame him for those. Looks like the officials screwed up.

— RJYttri (@Tanner1976) December 9, 2018

Philbin’s history also shows that he’s more likely to challenge the later into a season it is. 10 of his 19 challenges with Miami came after November 1st.

I would ignore the props dealing with 1.5 challenges. It doesn’t seem likely we get into two challenge territory again.

But, going OVER 0.5 (+160) and Philbin winning one of them (-105) could be a shrewd Sunday play.