Odds to Make NFL Playoffs After Week 12: Value on Broncos?
By Matt McEwan in NFL Football
Updated: April 1, 2020 at 12:10 am EDTPublished:
- There are only five weeks left in the 2018 NFL season
- A few divisions may be all but settled, but there are a handful of teams in the race for wild card spots in each conference
- See the odds to make the playoffs in the AFC and NFC
You might want to sit down before reading this next sentence.
There are only five weeks left in the 2018 NFL season. [Cue the panic]
But while that may seem like nothing to us fans, five more weeks is still a lot of football and a lot can change in that time.
As we head into Week 13, there are a few teams feeling pretty confident in where they stand through 11 games. Others have accepted the sad truth that their seasons will not extend into 2019.
The majority, however, find themselves in the thick of the playoff race in their respective conferences.
Check their chances at playing into 2019, starting with the AFC.
Odds to Make the AFC Playoffs
| Team | 2018 Record | Odds to Make Playoffs | Odds to Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 6-5* | +120 | -160 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5-6 | +900 | -3500 |
| Denver Broncos | 5-6 | +375 | -650 |
| Houston Texans | 8-3* | -10000 | +1400 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6-5 | +135 | -175 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8-3* | -900 | +500 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5-6 | +900 | -3500 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7-3-1* | -2000 | +750 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5-6 | +400 | -700 |
*Teams who currently hold a playoff spot
Is There Value in Betting the Broncos to Make the Playoffs?
Heading into their bye in Week 10 after a demoralizing loss at home to the Houston Texans in Week 9, the Denver Broncos season looked all but over at 3-6.
But following hard fought victories over the Chargers and Steelers in Weeks 11 and 12, the Broncos are trending upwards.
FINAL: The @Broncos outlast the Steelers! #BroncosCountry#PITvsDEN https://t.co/IRqcpg4Q9C
— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2018
Their defense has held teams to just 19.6 points per game over the last five weeks and have generated six turnovers in the last two weeks.
More importantly, they are finally capitalizing on their red zone trips. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos were only turning 47.4% of their red zone trips into touchdowns – 25th in the league.
In the last three weeks, they have converted on 70% of those trips, good for 12th-best in the NFL.
AYYY! @Broncos score the TD and break it down! 🕺#PITvsDEN | #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/9PoWrJzoGW
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) November 25, 2018
it’s not just the way Denver is playing that makes them an attractive bet at +375, it’s who they’re about to play.
Remaining Schedules for AFC Teams
| Team | Wk 13 | Wk 14 | Wk 15 | Wk 16 | Wk 17 | Combined Wins of Opponents |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | @CIN | @SF | v CLE | @OAK | v LAC | 21 |
| Baltimore Ravens | @ATL | @KC | v TB | @LAC | v CLE | 29 |
| Indianapolis Colts | @JAX | @HOU | v DAL | v NYG | @TEN | 25 |
| Miami Dolphins | v BUF | v NE | @MIN | v JAX | @BUF | 25 |
| Tennessee Titans | v NYJ | v JAX | @NYG | v WAS | v IND | 21 |
The trip to Cincinnati to play in a 1pm EST game had me a little concerned at first. But with news that Andy Dalton is done for the season, I’m confident a desperate Broncos team can overcome the time shift and beat Jeff Driskel.
Odds to Make the NFC Playoffs
| Team | 2018 Record | Odds to Make Playoffs | Odds to Miss Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-7 | +1400 | -10000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 6-5 | +175 | -260 |
| Chicago Bears | 8-3* | -10000 | +1400 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6-5* | -170 | +130 |
| Detroit Lions | 4-7 | +1400 | -10000 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4-6-1 | +450 | -850 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-4-1* | -220 | +155 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5-6 | +220 | -300 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6-5 | -400 | +250 |
| Washington Redskins | 6-5* | +275 | -450 |
*Teams who currently hold a playoff spot
Cowboys are Far From a Lock
Just as quickly as the Cowboys have resurrected their season with a three-game winning streak, it’s very possible they put themselves back against the ropes with a three-game losing streak.
Dallas’ next three opponents are as follows: the New Orleans Saints (they’re 7.5-point dogs at home), Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts (on the road).
🔊 from the sideline of the #DallasCowboys week 12 victory against the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving Day. https://t.co/paTTSO0B00
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 24, 2018
Yes, someone does have to win the NFC East, and I’m not still holding onto memories of the 2017 Eagles. But I’m also not that impressed with the Cowboys.
The only team with a winning record Dallas has beaten this season came last week against the Colt McCoy-led Washington Redskins.
With the Eagles secondary getting healthy, the +130 odds for Dallas to miss the playoffs become pretty enticing.
Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
