Where to Find the Best Value for 2019 March Madness Favorites
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Updated: April 21, 2020 at 9:33 am EDTPublished:
- Duke is an extremely short 2019 March Madness favorite no matter where you look.
- But the odds for many of the top 25 teams are wildly different at various online betting sites.
- Learn where to find the best value for all the top National Championship contenders.
The most recent update to our 2019 March Madness odds tracker shows that Duke has become the prohibitive favorite, sitting at +220 (on average) to win the national title.
Gonzaga, the first team to hand the Blue Devils an L, has moved up to (a distant) second at +730, while Kansas (+850), Nevada (+1400), and Kentucky (+1500) round out the top-five.
What our odds tracker doesn’t show is that the odds on some of the contenders vary greatly from sportsbook to sportsbook. The table below sets out the odds for the top-25 KenPom teams, showing where you can find the best value for each school.
2019 NCAAM National Championship Odds
*All odds and rankings below from Nov. 27, 2018. Bold text indicates best available odds.
| Team | Odds 1 | Odds 2 | Odds 3 | KenPom Ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | +200 | +250 | +200 | 1 |
| Kansas | +750 | +1000 | +800 | 2 |
| Virginia | +1700 | +1400 | +1800 | 3 |
| UNC | +2100 | +1400 | +2500 | 4 |
| Gonzaga | +750 | +650 | +800 | 5 |
| Nevada | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | 6 |
| Michigan | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | 7 |
| Michigan State | +3300 | +3300 | +2500 | 8 |
| Auburn | +3300 | +3300 | +2800 | 9 |
| Tennessee | +3300 | +2000 | +3300 | 10 |
| Texas Tech | +4500 | +3300 | +4500 | 11 |
| Wisconsin | +8000 | +10000 | +7000 | 12 |
| Purdue | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | 13 |
| Florida St | +6000 | +6600 | +7000 | 14 |
| Villanova | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 | 15 |
| Virginia Tech | +7000 | +6600 | +6000 | 16 |
| Iowa St | +20000 | OFF | +20000 | 17 |
| Kansas St | +7000 | +4000 | +6000 | 18 |
| Kentucky | +1400 | +1400 | +1600 | 19 |
| Syracuse | +7000 | +3300 | +8000 | 20 |
| Indiana | +6000 | +2500 | +9000 | 21 |
| Miami FL | +8000 | +6600 | +10000 | 22 |
| Ohio St | +7000 | +5000 | +7000 | 23 |
| Nebraska | OFF | OFF | +15000 | 24 |
| Texas | +10000 | +10000 | +7000 | 25 |
Why Stop at the Top 25?
The list stops at 25 because the chances of the 2019 National Champion coming from outside that group are slim. Since the inception of KenPom in 2001-02, no team sitting outside the top 25 entering March Madness has won the tournament. (The 2013-14 UConn Huskies were 25th.)
“[O]nly three times since 2002 has a team not ranked in KenPom’s top 6 won it all: 2003 Syracuse (20th) and UConn in 2011 (16th) and 2014 (25th).” — Kevin Flaherty, 247Sports
Teams that are currently outside the top 25 can and will enter the top 25 over the course of the season, so there could still be a diamond in that sub-25 rough. It’s not likely, though. As Kevin Flaherty of 247Sports noted in 2017, “only three times since 2002 has a team not ranked in KenPom’s top 6 won it all: 2003 Syracuse (20th) and UConn in 2011 (16th) and 2014 (25th).”
That statement holds true after UNC and Villanova won in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Going in search of a massive windfall in the lower tiers hasn’t been a winning tactic.
Of course, anyone holding a Loyola-Chicago ticket last season would have been able to hedge in the Final Four and ensure a tidy profit. But if you’re planning to ride your pick to the bitter end, stick to the teams in the table above.
Iowa State is the Biggest Viable Longshot
The biggest longshot in KenPom’s top 25 is Iowa State (+20000). Taking a flyer on the Cyclones could be a fun ride. They are 6-1 despite missing several key players, including Lindell Wigginton, their leading scorer last year (16.7 PPG, 2.8 APG, 40.1 3P%).
Their only loss to date was a 71-66 neutral-site setback to Arizona, a game they led by double digits in the second half.
With a roster that should get healthier over the course of the year and one of the best home-court advantages in the nation (#HiltonMagic), count on Iowa State’s odds getting shorter and shorter in the coming weeks, especially if they beat rival Iowa on the road on Dec. 6.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
