Week 12 Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football Props: Falcons vs Saints
By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football
Updated: April 1, 2020 at 8:19 am EDTPublished:
- NFC South rivals Atlanta and New Orleans renew hostilities on Thanksgiving.
- Perhaps unwisely, we’re stepping right in front of the Saints’ high-flying offense when it comes to this week’s props.
- We’re also banking on Atlanta’s pass rush remaining a very stoppable force.
Our Week 11 plays resulted in a -$162.96 loss, our first losing week since Week 6. Big swings on a couple longshots didn’t pan out, and now the ledger is back in the red for the year at -$68.16.
Let’s give thanks that the Thanksgiving slate brings some solid prop action. In the late game, New Orleans (9-1) hosts division rival Atlanta (4-6) riding a nine-game SU win streak and eight-game ATS win streak.
Go here for a full Falcons vs Saints game preview. Keep reading for our analysis of the best props to bet when these two (usually) explosive offenses lock horns on Thursday, (Nov. 22, 8:20 PM ET).
Prop #1: Falcons Under 1.5 Sacks
| How many sacks will the Falcons record? | Odds |
|---|---|
| OVER 1.5 | +105 |
| UNDER 1.5 | -125 |
The Falcons only have 19 sacks on the year, which is 28th in the league. New Orleans has surrendered a league-low 9 on the year and zero in the last four games. There’s not much more that needs to be said, but I will anyway, because I’m paid to write.
These defenses are PRESSURING opposing QBs the most this season!
Negative plays, turnovers and penalties are just a few of the issues that happen vs pressure.#LARams #DUUUVAL #HereWeGo #GoPats #BeRedSeeRed #GoPackGo #ChiefsKingdom #Texans #Seahawks #Skol #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/dbApMts8FX
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 19, 2018
Drew Brees gets the ball out lightning-quick and he’s working behind one of the best pass-protection lines in the league. Also, once the Saints grab the lead, they’ll start feeding Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Prop #2: Saints Do Not Score in Each Quarter
| Will the Saints score in each quarter? | Odds |
|---|---|
| YES | -145 |
| NO | +125 |
The Saints have scored in 15 of their last 16 quarters (93.75%). The Falcons have given up points in 15 of their last 20 quarters (75%). Take those together and you have an 84.38% chance that the Saints score in any given quarter. Multiply by four and you get a 52% chance the Saints score in all four quarters.
The -145 odds on the YES side have an implied probability of 59.2%. Betting against the New Orleans offense is a terrifying proposition, but the math says it’s the right play.
Prop #3: No TD of 55 Yards or Longer
| Will either team score a touchdown of at least 55 yards? | Odds |
|---|---|
| YES | -110 |
| NO | -110 |
As dynamic as these offenses are, they have both scored just two TDS of 55 yards or longer this season. Yes, one came in their first meeting …
Calvin Ridley smokes the Saints for a 75-yard TOUCHDOWN #NOvsATL pic.twitter.com/YbUwVsO7AK
— FlurrySports (@FlurrySports) September 23, 2018
… but again, the math says the NO is the right play. To get value at -110, the prop only needs a 53% chance of success. Based on the season to date, these teams are only scoring a 55-yard TD in about 40% of their games.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
