Duke vs Kentucky; Michigan State vs Kansas: 2018 Champions Classic Picks
By Sascha Paruk in College Basketball
Updated: April 1, 2020 at 6:50 am EDTPublished:
- The 2018-19 college basketball season starts tomorrow (Tues., Nov. 6).
- Four of the top-10 National Championship favorites play each other on opening night.
- Get our against-the-spread picks for Duke vs Kentucky and Michigan State vs Kansas.
The 2018-19 season starts tomorrow with a host of tip-off tournaments. Heading into the year, there is a clear top-four in the National Championship favorites: Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Kansas.
While Gonzaga has a layup against Idaho State in its opener, the other three face stiff tests on Tuesday. Kansas (#1 in the preseason AP poll) plays #10 Michigan State, while #2 Kentucky and #4 Duke play each other. Both games are at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis as part of the Champions Classic.
Duke Blue Devils vs Kentucky Wildcats
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Duke | +1.5 (-110) | O 156 (-110) |
| Kentucky | -1.5 (-110) | U 156 (-110) |
In the preseason, I did a deep dive into why Duke should not be the outright National Championship favorite that they are, and that still holds true. They should also be bigger underdogs than they are against Kentucky in the opener.
Duke has a lot going for it, including the three best freshman in the country, according to ESPN’s rankings. But they lost their entire starting five, and this year’s group of one-and-dones (RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones) aren’t going to simply outclass other top teams the way some freshmen have been able to in years past (e.g. Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant).
Kentucky has the athletes to matchup with Duke, and they also have a lot more experience, returning:
- PJ Washington (sophomore, forward): 10.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 27.4 MPG
- Quade Green (sophomore, point guard): 9.3 PPG, 2.7 APG, 37.6 3P%, 25.6 MPG
- Nick Richards (sophomore, forward): 5.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.9 BPG, 14.7 MPG
- Reid Travis (senior, forward, Stanford transfer): 19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 34.0 MPG
When John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have actually had a few veterans, they’ve been good from start to finish. When they’ve been (almost) all freshmen, they’ve needed time to figure things out. That’s why I like the Wildcats to come out quickly tomorrow night and beat a Duke team that’s essentially starting from scratch.
The fact that they have the #2 recruiting class in the nation and several five-star freshman of their own doesn’t hurt, of course. Neither does the fact that four-star Tyler Herro will give them some honest-to-god three-point shooting.
KenPom actually has the Blue Devils favored by a point in this game (78-77), but it’s too hard not to side with experience here.
Pick: Kentucky -1.5 (-110)
Michigan State Spartans vs Kansas Jayhawks
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | +5.5 (-110) | O 156 (-110) |
| Kansas | -5.5 (-110) | U 156 (-110) |
Michigan State and Kansas both lost a lot from last year’s teams.
Sparty saw Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson enter the NBA draft. Their key returnees are:
- Cassius Winston (junior, point guard): 12.6 PPG, 6.9 APG, 49.7 3P%, 28.1 MPG
- Joshua Langford (junior, shooting guard): 11.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 40.4 3P%, 27.0 MPG
- Nick Ward (junior, center): 12.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 18.9 MPG
Kansas loses Devonte Graham, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Malik Newman, while bringing back/in:
- LaGerald Vick (senior, shooting guard): 12.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.1 APG 33.1 MPG
- Udoka Azubuike (junior, center): 13.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 23.6 MPG
- Dedric Lawson (junior, forward, Memphis transfer): 19.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.1 BPG 34.5 MPG (2016-17)
- KJ Lawson (sophomore, forward, Memphis transfer): 12.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 33.7 MPG (2016-17)
Kansas is clearly returning more veteran production but that’s not the only edge they’ll have in this game. They also have the stronger recruiting class, headlined by five-stars Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson. Their freshman class was ranked sixth overall by ESPN. Michigan State, on the other hand, has just the 12th-ranked recruiting class and no five-star prospects.
The importance of adding Dedric Lawson to the Kansas roster can’t be overstated at this point. The Memphis transfer looked phenomenal in the preseason and appears to have extended his range to the three-point line, going 6/8 from deep in exhibition. He’s a preseason First-Team All-American and Naismith frontrunner for good reason. He won’t wow you with athleticism like some of the freshman you’ll see at the Champions Classic, but he has an extremely polished post-game and will terrorize college basketball all season.
That will start with a seriously decimated Michigan State frontcourt tomorrow.
Pick: Kansas -5.5 (-110)
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
