All the NFL Draft Matchups Available to Bet
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- The first round of the NFL Draft begins tonight at 8pm ET from Lambeau Field, in Green Bay, WI
- Edge James Pearce Jr has major character concerns according to multiple NFL insiders
- See all the NFL Draft matchup odds and picks, below
The NFL Draft is finally here. An avalanche of news has dropped in the last few days alone, wildly shifting all the Draft related betting markets. As it stands Thursday morning, most of those markets now boast very efficient lines, but there’s a much smaller category that still offers some value.
NFL Draft Player Matchups & Odds
That’s the NFL Draft matchups market released by DraftKings and FanDuel. A week ago, there were six bets to choose from, but the list has been dwindled down to four. My favorite target is Jalen Milroe versus James Pearce Jr, at a very attractive +250 price tag in the NFL Draft odds.
NFL Draft Matchup Bet #1: Jalen Milroe Over James Pearce Jr
We’ll get to Milroe in a second, but first let’s hit on Pearce Jr The Tennessee Edge is perhaps a top-10 talent, but he has major character issues according to industry experts. Draft Guru Todd McShay says he has more than a page of notes on Pearce regarding his attitude and on-field drive. His maturity has been brought into question, and it doesn’t help that he has an arrest in his past as well.
Top-5 Edge Grades per PFF
Pearce Jr’s stock has been falling to the point where he’s now just a small favorite to be a 1st Round pick. Milroe on the other hand, is an ascending player. Teams love his elite athleticism and dual-threat ability, viewing him as a Lottery ticket.
The floor may be low, but the ceiling is sky-high. He’s been working with QB Guru Jordan Palmer to fix his mechanics, which will hopefully address accuracy concerns. At one point, Milroe was a longshot to be a top-32 pick. Now he sits at +190 to be a top-32 selection, and he’s been invited to the Draft.
In a year that’s lacking elite talent, I think teams would rather bet on the ceiling of Milroe, instead of the character concerns of someone like Pearce Jr.
- Jalen Milroe Over James Pearce Jr (+250)
NFL Draft Matchup Bet #2: Luther Burden III Over Trey Amos
Our second wager is also available at juicy plus-money odds. I’m betting Luther Burden III is taken ahead of Trey Amos, as his ceiling is quite a bit higher.
Neither is likely to hear their name called tonight, so this wager will likely be settled on Day 2. However, if one of them gets selected in the 1st Round, Burden is the more likely candidate.
The Mizzou wideout is flying under the radar for a couple reasons. For starters, he dealt with injuries off and on last season. That hindered his production, so his Junior stats look nothing like his sophomore numbers. He’s also not an overwhelming specimen, and some have questioned his ability to line up outside of the slot.
Let’s address both concerns. The entire Missouri offense took at step back last year. Burden caught only 61 balls for 676 yards, and 6 TD. The year before, he racked up 86 catches, for 1,212 yards and 9 TD.
Here’s a kid who was the top wide receiver prospect in the state of Missouri out of high school. He’s got above average speed, and is an absolute technician as a route runner. Regardless of where he lines up, he creates separation and wins in the intermediate and deep levels of the field.
He may be a bit undersized to play on the outside, but his best comp is Brandin Cooks, a six-time 1,000 yard receiver. Pro Football Focus has him graded 15th overall, ahead of every traditional wideout in this class except Tetairoa McMillan. He’s great after the catch, and I’m betting teams will trust the ceiling on display in his sophomore tape.
As for Amos, he’s a safe, pick but profiles as a number-two corner in the league. His explosiveness and speed are unspectacular, while he allows separation a little too easily according to scouts.
With both players projected to be early Day-2 picks, this bet should be much closer to even money. I’ll gladly take the value on Burden.
- Luther Burden III Over Trey Amos (+120)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
