NFL Draft First-Round Pick Odds & Picks – Find the Best First-Round Value Bets

• The first round of the NFL Draft goes live on Thursday, April 24th at 8 pm ET
• Jalen Milroe is rising up draft boards and is an intriguing bet to be selected in Round 1
• See the NFL Draft first-round pick odds, and best value bets below

This year’s NFL Draft class is not sexy. Outside the top three or four picks, there’s little consensus among NFL Draft experts. That means we’re likely in for a lot of surprises on Thursday, when the First Round kicks off from Green Bay.

NFL Draft First-Round Selection Odds

It also means there’s going to be handful of first-round selections that few people saw coming. Teams might swing for more upside knowing the gap between a late first-round pick and second or third round selection isn’t that wide this year.

I’ve identified my two favorite surprise Round 1 picks in the NFL Draft odds, with each offering plus-money odds to go in the top-32 picks. Jalen Milroe is my first selection at +170, not based on talent, but around the surge in buzz he’s getting leading up to Thursday.

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NFL Draft First Round Best Value Bets: Jalen Milroe

You’ll often hear NFL Draft gurus claim there’s no such thing as a Second Round quarterback. Either teams think highly enough of a QB to take them in Round 1, or they’ll just wait until late on Day 2 or Day 3. Of course there are exceptions, Jalen Hurts being the most obvious one, but they are few and far between.

Milroe is a name that is rising up Draft boards this week. Multiple teams are reportedly interested in his talent, and believe he has the ability to follow a similar development trajectory as Hurts. Similar to Hurts, Milroe is an exceptional athlete. That shows up primarily in the running game, where few QB’s have ever dominated at the collegiate level like he did.

Also much like Hurts, there are major questions about his accuracy. Milroe throws a fantastic deep ball, but saw his INT rate double in 2024 over the previous year. His yards per attempt were down, while his efficiency rating dropped from 172.2 to 148.8.

Jalen Milroe 2023 vs 2024 Passing Stats

Still, there’s belief you can fix his throwing mechanics. QB guru Jordan Palmer has been tasked with the assignment, and reports are Milroe is progressing well. That helps selling him to your fanbase as the ultimate dual-threat option. Milroe rushed for 20 touchdowns last season, and 1,577 yards during his college career at Alabama.

Multiple experts have him pencilled in as a first-round pick in their Mock Drafts, including NFL.com’s Eric Edholm. Most are mocking him to the the Steelers, Giants or Raiders, with the ladder two being the most likely to trade back into Round 1 to grab him. His +170 odds give him an implied probability of 37% to be a first-round pick, and I think the likelihood is much higher than that.

• Jalen Milroe to Be Drafted in 1st Round (+170 at DraftKings)

NFL Draft First Round Best Value Bets: Tyleik Williams

Our next target is Ohio State defensive tackle Tyleik Williams. You can get him at +700 odds to go in the first round, which translates into a 12.5% implied probability of being a Day 1 pick. I believe his chances are much greater than that, making his price tag a steal. Full disclosure, SBD’s NFL Mock Draft doesn’t expect Williams to be a top-32 pick, but others around the industry do.

The Ringer’s Danny Kelly is the highest on Williams, ranking him 23rd on his big board. NFL.com has Williams as one of the top-five Round 1 sleepers, while several other outlets have him as a late first-rounder.

Six teams picking between 23-32 brought Williams in for a visit, including the Bills, Eagles, Lions, Packers and Ravens. Williams is a space-eater considered the best run stopper in the class. He finished with 28 tackles for loss in 2024, the most in the FBS.

Thanks to the prevalence of the two-saftey look these days, NFL offenses are leaning more on their rushing attacks. That makes Williams’ elite size (6-2, 334 lbs) and skill set highly coveted, and will prompt somebody to take him in the top-32.

• Tyleik Williams to be Drafted in 1st Round (+700 at DraftKings)