Hegseth Heavily Favored in Odds to Leave Trump Cabinet First
By Sascha Paruk in Politics News
Published:
- Prediction site Kalshi has a market on which Trump cabinet member will be the first to leave their post
- Secretary of defense Pete Hegseth is in the news again for the wrong reasons
- Hegseth is now a heavy favorite in the odds to leave the Trump cabinet first
Arguably the most controversial in a long line of head-scratching cabinet choices from US President Donald Trump, secretary of defense Pete Hegseth has not has a smooth first few months in his high-profile post. The 44-year-old first landed in hot water in March when he included a reporter from the Atlantic in a Signal group chat pertaining to US military operations in Yemen. Today it came to light that he shared details of the same Yemen operations in a second Signal chat with his wife and brother on his personal phone.
Formerly the second-favorite Trump cabinet member to leave their position (behind secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick), Hegseth’s odds shortened on Monday morning and he is now the heavy favorite.
Odds to Leave Trump Cabinet First
Yes/No prices and percentages from Kalshi at 2:03 pm ET on Monday, April 21st.
Hegseth’s Odds to Leave Cabinet First Shorten Significantly
Despite his earlier blunder, which dominated political news cycles back in March, as of Monday morning, Hegseth was only the second-favorite in the odds to leave Trump’s cabinet first. The “Yes” price on Hegseth was trading at just 13¢ while Lutnick was at 16¢.
But the numbers have changed dramatically over the last several hours. Hegseth’s “Yes” price has been on a steady rise and now sits at 55¢, for the first time becoming the odds-on favorite in this market. The “No” price on Hegseth last traded at 46¢
The latest out of the White House, however, was that Trump was standing firmly behind his secretary of defense. Reuters reported that “Trump stands behind Hegseth after attack plans shared in second Signal chat”. But Kalshi users clearly believe that the mounting pressure will spell the end of Hegseth’s tenure. Earlier
In a separate but related Kalshi market, Hegseth is priced at 56¢ to leave his position as Secretary of Defense before the end of 2025, which is the highest price of any member of the Trump administration currently on the board. Trade advisor Peter Navarro has the second-highest “Yes” price at 44¢. Lutnick is third, trading at 33¢.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
