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Best MLB Home Run Props to Bet Today – Get a +13056 HR Parlay on Monday, April 21

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


Apr 20, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) reacts after hitting an RBI single during the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
  • We’ve only got seven games on the MLB Slate for Monday, April 21
  • Even though the action is limited, we can still get loose with home run bets
  • See below for my +13056 MLB parlay for Monday

It’s time we had “the talk”. We’ve reached the point of the season where some bettors are getting frustrated with betting home runs. I get it. Feast or famine isn’t really for everyone. I, for one, love it. It’s just how I roll. But even if it’s not totally for you, there are ways to do it that will take away the sting of the feast-or-famine lifestyle. It’s actually all in your brain and how you think about this game we play.

What I like to do is take three guys to hit a home run. I’ll bet 0.25 units on all of them straight. Then, I’ll also parlay all three for 0.25 units. That way, at the end of the day, all I only have one full unit in play. It might be over four different bets, but it’s still just a unit. If we go five days in a row, losing every single home run bet, we’re only down five units in total. It literally feels worse than it actually is, which is why the dinger game is crazy. The upside is, if we hit just three of those 15, we’re likely profiting. And if those three wins came in one day, we’re rolling in cash. Feels right.

(Going forward, we’ll track the results of these Monday-Friday home run articles just to give an idea of what the P/L looks like)

MLB Home Run Parlay for Monday, April 21

Manny Machado HR+420
Pete Alonso HR+450
Marcell Ozuna HR+360
Three-Leg Parlay+13056

MLB odds as of April 21 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s list of the top sports gambling apps.

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CLAIM OFFER

Monday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run

Betting dingers is all about finding guys who are hitting the ball hard. That’s literally it. I know we want to make it about so much more than that, but it’s not the case. Show me a guy who is pumping balls off the bat at 110+ MPH and I’ll show you a guy I have money on.

One guy who fits that description is Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres. Just look at what he’s doing to the pitch mix he’ll see tonight.

PitchManny Machado Hard Hit Rate vs Pitch (Current Season)Keider Montero Hard Hit Rate on pitch to RHB
Sinker86%50%
Four-seam Fastball85%50%

As great as Manny has been recently, we have to admit that pitcher does factor into these things. Keider Montero will be on the mound tonight for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s definitely a dinger guy. He’s already given up three home runs in just five innings pitched this season. Somebody is going yard tonight for the Padres. Maybe even a few somebodies. I think Manny Machado will be one of them. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Manny Machado to Hit a HR (+420) – FanDuel
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Monday MLB Parlay Leg #2 – Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run

We’re staying with the “guys who crush the ball” approach with our next guy, and his name is Pete Alonso. Over his last four games, Alonso has hit the ball 104+ mph four different times. Only one of those balls cleared a fence, but whatever. We can’t predict that.

All we can predict is if a guy will hit a certain pitch mix well, and from the looks of it, Alonso should be good to go tonight.

PitchPete Alonso Barrel Rate vs Pitch (Current Season)Aaron Nola Hard Hit Rate on pitch to RHB
Sinker20%67%
Four-seam Fastball67%38%

Pete will see a familiar face in Aaron Nola, which is a good thing for Pete. Alonso has seen Nola 57 times in his career, and six of those times ended with Pete jogging around the bases. Nola’s four-seam fastball has been a pimpjob set up this season, and Alonso has been destroying that pitch so far. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Pete Alonso to Hit a HR (+450) – FanDuel

Monday HR Parlay Leg #3 – Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run

It took Marcell Ozuna a little time to get going this season, but he’s finally back to smoking baseballs. Going through his exit velocity logs, it looks like he could end the season with 50+ home runs. We’re talking 110+ mph hits all over the place. In his last two games, his bat has touched a ball seven times, and in five of those instances, it left the bat at a minimum of 104+ mph.

The good news is, the hit party should continue tonight since he’ll see a pitch mix that agrees with him.

PitchMarcell Ozuna Barrel Rate vs Pitch (Current Season)Erick Fedde ISO on pitch to RHB
Sinker72%.136
Sweeper100%.375

Opposing Ozuna will be Erick Fedde, who isn’t a bad pitcher. In fact, he has only given up two home runs in 21 innings of work so far this season. Still, his sweeper is a problem, and Ozuna has crushed that pitch on the regular for a while now. Marcell has already taken Fedde deep twice in his career. I think he makes it three times tonight. Feels right.

  • The Bet: Marcell Ozuna to Hit a HR (+360) – FanDuel

John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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