Odds to Be First WR Drafted in 2025 NFL Draft – Golden Gaining on McMillan
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Tetairoa McMillan’s odds to be the first wideout drafted have been lengthened from -240 to -165
- Matthew Golden’s stock is on the rise, and is the most likely receiver to be selected ahead of McMillan
- See the updated odds to be the first and second wide receiver drafted, below
Where there’s smoke there’s fire. The smoke out of NFL Draft pundits mouths these days is Tetairoa McMillan is no longer a lock to be the first receiver selected. McMillan’s price to be the top wideout drafted has been lengthened significantly over the past week, as work ethic concerns have started to surface.
First Wide Receiver Drafted Odds
McMillan’s NFL Draft odds to be the first receiver selected have gone from -240 to -165. His chief competition in this market is Matthew Golden, who’s price has been shortened from +150 to +120. Emeka Egbuka is a mild threat to overtake them both, but most experts don’t believe he has a high enough ceiling to be a top-15 pick.
McMillan Has Too Many Red Flags
The pros with MacMillan are obvious. He’s a big, he’s smooth, he’s rangy, and he has a great catch radius. His closest player comp is the Falcons Drake London, as he has the traits to be a big-time X receiver.
McMillan put up back-to-back 1,300+ yard seasons at Arizona, scoring 18 receiving touchdowns along the way. He averaged 15.7 yards per catch in his final season, while racking up 84 receptions.
However, he’s far from a perfect prospect. McMillan isn’t nearly the type of “dog” London was coming out of USC. London was far more detail oriented, and was able to improve his underwhelming route running skills quickly at the NFL level.
From all accounts, McMillan does a poor job of finishing routes. He lacks attention to detail and doesn’t do the little things well away from the ball. On tape, experts point out that he lacks urgency, and doesn’t fight hard enough in contested catch situations.
Under a previous regime at Arizona, McMillan was coached much harder and showed more effort. This past season, he was left to his own devices, and didn’t show the type of compete that a 1st round receiver should.
To make matters worse, he didn’t attend the combine, and ran an a sub-par 4.48 40-yard dash at his pro day. Speed kills at the NFL level, and a guy with work ethic concerns and below average wheels is likely not worthy of being the number one receiver picked.
Golden Rising for Good Reason
Golden on the other hand, is gaining traction for how he tested and the show he put on in the postseason. The Texas wideout had his two best games in primetime, racking up 162 receiving yards in the SEC Championship Game, and 140+ yards and TD in the CFP quarterfinals.
Golden has elite speed, demonstrated by his 4.29 40-yard dash at the Combine. He claims he was dealing with an ankle injury then, and that his real time is in the 4.1’s. Injured ankle or not, it was the second fastest 40 this year, behind only Kentucky corner Maxwell Hairston.
2025 NFL Combine 40-Yard Dash Results
Golden can play all three receiver positions, and has excellent ball skills. He has the speed to beat a defender deep, but also the fluidity to break off routes early and win at the intermediate level of the field.
He led all Texas receivers this past season with 987 receiving yards and 9 TD, while averaging 17.0 yards per catch. If there’s a knock on him it’s that he’s not dynamic enough after the catch, but I’m not buying that.
Golden was a kick returner for the Longhorns, and for the previous two years at the University of Houston before transferring. He took two kicks back to the house as a Cougar, and the speed, decisiveness and field reading ability to do that job almost always translates into elite YAC production in the pros.
At this point of the process, all of McMillan’s red flags are going to see him slide. The most likely team to draft a receiver first per our NFL Mock Draft is the Cowboys at 12, and rumours out of Dallas are they prefer Golden.
- Pick: Matthew Golden (+120 at DraftKings)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
