Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction, Lineups & Odds

• The Toronto Maple Leafs are heavy home favorites against the Ottawa Senators in Game 1 on Sunday
• Ottawa won all three regular season meetings against their provincial rivals
• Read my Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 prediction with odds, best bets and projected lineups below

The Toronto Maple Leafs begin their never-ending quest to break the curse of not winning a Stanley Cup since 1967 against their provincial rivals, the Ottawa Senators. These two teams met four times in the early 2000’s in the postseason, all won by Toronto in a one-sided Battle of Ontario. Ottawa, though, is making their first postseason appearance since 2017. In the Stanley Cup odds, neither are a favorite to lift Lord Stanley, with the Leafs at +1100 and the Sens +4000. Toronto hosts Ottawa at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday evening. The Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 odds have the home side as -166 moneyline favorites.

Ottawa (45-30-7, 97 points) was fourth in the Atlantic Division. Toronto (52-26-4, 108 points) won their first ever Atlantic Division crown, and they were eleven points better than their counterparts. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET, with coverage on ESPN2 in the United States and CBC along with Sportsnet in Canada.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Prediction

• Pick: Senators ML (+140 at DraftKings)

On paper, this shapes up as a significant mismatch, despite Ottawa winning all three meetings in the regular season. Toronto had eleven more points, is stronger in both goals per game and goals allowed, and they have better special teams.

Since February 1st, the Leafs have been dynamite, going 22-7-2, racking up the second most points in the NHL during that span. In that same time frame, the Sens 18-10-3, tenth best in hockey.

Between the pipes, the Leafs projected Game 1 starter Anthony Stolarz (2.14 GAA, .926 save %) had a better year than Senators netminder Linus Ullmark (2.72 GAA, .910 sv%).

Senators vs Maple Leafs Head-to-Head Stats

Up front, Toronto has more scoring prowess, with Mitch Marner fifth in points on the campaign (102), William Nylander’s 45 goals were second best in the NHL, and four skaters had 70+ points (also Auston Matthews and John Tavares). Ottawa had just one with Tim Stutzle’s 79 points.

Of course, in this era of the Maple Leafs, the bugaboo has been the lack of playoff success, with only one series win (in 2023) in the Matthews and Marner careers in TO. The Leafs have often been slow starters too, losing six of eight Game 1’s in this iteration of the squad.

After many seasons of discontent and frustration, the Sens were finally able to leap back in the postseason in the first year with Travis Green at the helm behind the bench, improving by 19 points over 2023-24.

The narrative will be whether the Leafs can get over the hump and go on a playoff run, once and for all, whereas Ottawa can play freely with little pressure, compared to their rivals. While I like Toronto to eventually win the series, I actually believe they’ll grip their sticks a bit too tight and the Sens can squeak out an upset in the opening salvo.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Odds

Toronto is a heavy -166 moneyline favorite, giving them a 62.41% implied win probability to take the first battle of Ontario. A $166 bet on them would profit $100 if they’re victorious. Conversely, a $100 wager on the +140 under Senators would return $140.

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Odds as of April 20, 2025, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on the NHL Playoffs.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Projected Lineups

Senators Projected Lineup

Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

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