NHL Playoff Predictions for Every Round 1 Matchup 2025

• The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin Saturday
• Florida and Tampa Bay, two of the top-three Stanley Cup contenders, meet in Round 1
• See my NHL Playoff Predictions for Every Round 1 Matchup below

Postseason hockey is finally here! We’ve known the matchups and seedings for a couple days, but on the eve of the Stanley Cup playoffs, it’s time to make predictions for every series. We have the battle of Florida, the battle of Ontario, and the battle of Wayne Gretzky’s former teams all in the opening round.

Throw in Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of a second trophy, plus Miko Rantanen facing his former club, and there are no shortage of storylines to get excited about in the NHL playoff bracket.

Lightning vs Panthers Prediction

• Over 5.5 Games (-188 at FanDuel)

We have to start with the Lightning versus the Panthers, which would make a compelling Cup Final, let alone Round 1 matchup. Florida is the defending champ, and the favorite in the Stanley Cup odds. They’re a group of proven winners, and got significantly stronger at the deadline by adding Brad Marchand and Seth Jones. Matthew Tkachuk is back from injury, and Aaron Ekblad will return for Game 3 from suspension.

Tampa Bay meanwhile, has Nikita Kucherov, the NHL’s scoring leader, plus three other 35+ goal scorers. Andrew Vasilevskiy is a top-three goalie, while Victor Hedman headlines a blueline that’s allowed the sixth fewest goals since February 1st. Brace yourself for a long, hard fought series, that’s more likely to go 7 games than 5.

Senators vs Maple Leafs Best Bet

• Maple Leafs -1.5 Games (+120 at DraftKings)

Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and the boys are a nice story, but they need to pay their playoff dues before I’m ready to back them. Ottawa is balanced across the board, but the lack of experience is a major reason why you should back the Maple Leafs by 1.5 games.

NHL Expected Goals Leaders – 2024-2025

We all know Toronto’s underwhelming playoff history, but it’s now or never. The team finally has an adult behind the bench, and the roster is deeper than ever. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander are a nightmare to defend, while the Maple Leafs goaltending and defense combo has never been stronger.

Canadiens vs Capitals Pick

• Over 5.5 Games (-160 at FanDuel)

Led by the Great 8, the Capitals offense has never been more efficient. They led the league in 5-on-5 shooting percentage, but still managed to only outscore the opposition by .21 goals at even strength. What happens if that efficiency dries up? Players grip the stick a little bit tighter on the biggest stage, and the Habs have the right ingredients to make this series interesting.

Montreal has plenty of scoring, solid goaltending, and the one of the game’s bright young stars in Lane Hutson anchoring the blueline. Throw in the uncertain injury situation of Caps number one goalie Logan Thompson, and this series seems destined to get back to Montreal for Game 6.

Oilers vs Kings Prediction

• Los Angeles Kings Series Winner (+115 at DraftKings)

It’s hard to bet against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the two most talented players in the series, but I’m doing it anyways. Both enter the series banged up, while the Kings have a massive advantage between the pipes.

The Oilers Stuart Skinner has the worst goals saved above expectation rate of any starting netminder in the playoffs. LA on the other hand has Darcy Kuemper, a Stanley Cup champion between the pipes.

The Kings offense is underrated, ranking top-10 in goals, shots and scoring chances per 60 minutes. They also won an NHL-best 31 games in their own rink, and will have home ice advantage against Edmonton.

Stars vs Avalanche Best Bet

• Dallas Stars Series Winner (+126 at FanDuel)

This a rematch of last year’s Round 2 matchup. Colorado didn’t have enough secondary scoring to compliment Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar then, and I don’t believe they have enough now. Dallas can match the Avs firepower, and are stronger on the backend and in net in my opinion.

There’s also the added Rantanen element facing his former team. The controversial forward has over 100 points in 81 career playoff games, and just might be the missing piece to get the Stars back to the Stanley Cup Final.

Blues vs Jets Pick

• Winnipeg Jets -1.5 Games (+110 at DraftKings)

Simply put, St. Louis peaked too soon. Following a 12-game winning streak, the Blues proceeded to drop three straight and needed a win over Utah in the season finale just to secure a Wild Card berth. Now they face the President’s Cup winners, who are the most balanced team in the NHL.

Winnipeg gets consistent offense from three lines as well as its defensemen. They’re elite in their own zone, and feature the Vezina Trophy odds favorite Connor Hellebuyck. The future Hall-of-Famer needs to exorcise his playoff demons, and I predict that’s going to start with a convincing Round 1 performance.

Wild vs Golden Knights Prediction

• Vegas Golden Knights -2.5 Games (+220 at DraftKings)

Speaking of balanced teams, that’s Vegas in a nut shell. They had 11 players finish with 10+ goals, led by Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev. Aiden Hill is one of the top goalies in the league, while only two teams allowed fewer expected goals against.

As for Minnesota, they were extremely lucky to get here. They’ve been ravaged by injuries, and but still managed to sneak in thanks to their 18 one-goal victories. There’s regression coming, and a team that ranks bottom-10 in goals for and high danger chances simply can’t compete with the like of the Golden Knights.

Hurricanes vs Devils Best Bet

• Any Game to Reach Double Overtime (+400)

If there’s any series that seems destined to produce a multi-OT game it’s this one. New Jersey is top-six in goals against and shots allowed, while ranking second on the PK. Both Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen could start on almost any team, while the loss of Jack Hughes lowers their offensive ceiling.

The Canes meanwhile, own the league’s best PK and were top-10 in expected goals against. Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov combined for the third best save percentage on high-danger chances, while the offense lacks the depth needed to scare New Jersey. This series will be low-scoring and lengthy, with at least one contest exceeding four periods.