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Senators vs Leafs Playoff Series Odds, Schedule & Prediction 2025
By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
- The Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs are meeting in the playoffs for the first time since 2004
- Toronto is a heavy -192 favorite to win the series at online sportsbooks
- Read below for Ottawa vs Toronto series odds, schedule and prediction
The Battle of Ontario is back, and for the first time since 2004, the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs will face off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Atlantic Division champion Leafs (52-26-4, 108 points) will have home-ice advantage over the Sens (45-30-7, 97 points), who grabbed the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Despite Toronto’s superior regular season, the Senators enter this series with confidence after winning all three meetings between the provincial rivals in 2024-25. Ottawa took the season series by an aggregate score of 7-3, although two of those victories were one-goal games.
Here is a look at the Sens vs Leafs series odds, plus schedule, key stats, and our Battle of Ontario prediction.
Jump To: Series Odds | Schedule | Advanced Stats | Prediction
Sens vs Leafs Series Odds
The Maple Leafs are heavy -192 favorites to win the series at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Senators are +158 underdogs. In terms of implied probability, oddsmakers are giving Toronto a 65.9% chance of advancing, with Ottawa checking in at 38.8%.
So what do these odds tell us? In short, the Leafs are expected to win this series rather handily. However, the series is expected to go at least 6 games. A $192 bet on Toronto would return $100 in profit if they move on, while a $100 wager on Ottawa would net $158 if they pull off the upset.
The Leafs being such substantial favorites is no surprise given their star-studded roster and 108-point regular season. This is a team that finished top-10 in goals scored, goals against, power play percentage and penalty kill percentage. The Sens, meanwhile, were bottom-10 in goals for and both special teams categories.
However, the Leafs have struggled mightily in the playoffs in recent years. Dating back to 2017, Toronto has lost six opening-round series in seven appearances, with their only victory coming against the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2023 before bowing out in the second round. The pressure is squarely on the shoulders of this core group to prove they can finally get over the hump.
Odds as of April 18, 2025, at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on Sens vs Leafs.
Sens vs Leafs Playoff Series Schedule
Here is the NHL Playoff schedule for the first four games of this best-of-seven series:
- Game 1: Sunday, April 20 – Senators at Maple Leafs, 7 p.m. ET
- Game 2: Tuesday, April 22 – Senators at Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Game 3: Thursday, April 24 – Maple Leafs at Senators, 7 p.m. ET
- Game 4: Saturday, April 26 – Maple Leafs at Senators, 7 p.m. ET
- Game 5: Tuesday, April 29 – Senators at Maple Leafs, TBD (if necessary)
- Game 6: Thursday, May 1 – Maple Leafs at Senators, TBD (if necessary)
- Game 7: Saturday, May 3 – Senators at Maple Leafs, TBD (if necessary)
The series get underway on the second day of the NHL postseason, Sunday, April 20th. There is one day off between games, except for a two-day gap between a potential Game 5 back in Toronto.
The Leafs were dominant at home this season, posting a 26-9-6 record at Scotiabank Arena. They also had the most road wins (25) in the Eastern Conference, so they can win anywhere. Ottawa was solid on home ice (23-12-6) but struggled as the visitor (17-19-5).
Advanced Stats
Despite the gap in the standings, these teams are actually quite even at 5-on-5. Have a look at these underlying numbers:
OTT vs TOR Advanced Stats
Ottawa actually has better possession stats (50.07% Corsi For vs Toronto’s 47.38%) and a slightly better expected goals percentage at 5v5 (49.4% to 48.5%). But here’s where it gets interesting – the Leafs scored more goals (169 vs 139) while allowing fewer (136 vs 157) despite being outshot. That’s efficiency at its finest.
Where Toronto truly separates themselves is finishing skill. The Leafs dominated high-danger goals, controlling an impressive 57.05% of the HDGF% compared to Ottawa’s pedestrian 46%. They’re also converting shots at a significantly higher rate (9.43% shooting percentage vs Ottawa’s 7.62%). Add in superior goaltending (92.63% save percentage vs 91.33%), and you get Toronto’s excellent 1.021 PDO versus Ottawa’s below-average 0.989.
Other key stats to know:
- Toronto’s lethal power play (25%, 7th overall) vs Ottawa’s leaky penalty kill (77.9%, 25th)
- Brady Tkachuk: 123 PIMs and 14 PP goals – chaos incarnate who could swing the series
- Leafs’ crease: Anthony Stolarz (21-8-3, .926 SV%, 2.14 GAA) and Joseph Woll (27-14-1, .909 SV%)
- Ottawa’s workhorse Linus Ullmark: 25 wins, 2.72 GAA, .910 SV%
- Toronto’s current top line Knies-Matthews-Marner line never faced Ottawa this season
Senators vs Leafs Prediction
On paper, the Leafs should win this series. They have more elite talent, a better power play, and home-ice advantage. If Matthews, Marner and Nylander are firing on all cylinders, Ottawa will be hard-pressed to keep up.
However, I don’t think this will be as straightforward as the oddsmakers are suggesting. The Senators have had Toronto’s number all season, taking all three meetings by a combined score of 7-3. They also have an edge in net with Ullmark and a game-breaking talent on the back end in Jakob Sanderson.
Led by the pesky Brady Tkachuk, expect the Sens to turn this series into an absolute war. They’ll be crashing and banging, getting under the Leafs’ skin at every turn. Special teams will be key – if Toronto can force Ottawa to take penalties, their elite power play will be the difference.
The Buds owned the 7th-ranked power play (25%) and 11th-best penalty kill (78.1%) this season. Ottawa was 23rd on the PP (23.5%) and 25th on the PK (77.9%). The refs tend to pocket their whistles in the playoffs, but the Leafs are more equipped to capitalize on their opportunities.
I’m predicting a long, intense series with no shortage of bad blood. Ottawa will steal one game in Toronto and ignite Canadian Tire Centre with a home win. Tkachuk will be a menace every shift, but Toronto’s superior finishing talent will be the difference. I’m betting Leafs to win in 6 games as the Battle of Ontario rivalry gets renewed.
Prediction: Maple Leafs win Series 4-2 (+420 at FanDuel)
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Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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