MLB Home Run Picks & Predictions for Dinger Tuesday (April 15)

Published: April 15, 2025 at 12:15 pm EDT

Apr 13, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (10 ) hits a two RBI double during the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images

It’s Tuesday, and that means another chance to swing for the fences with Dinger Tuesday
FanDuel’s got a home run bonus ready for today’s MLB action
Check out three players I’m targeting for Dinger Tuesday on April 15th, plus how I’m playing the promo

Tuesday baseball is here, and it’s a prime opportunity to bet on some hitters to go deep. With a full 15-game slate on tap, let’s see where the value is for a long ball.

FanDuel is bringing back Dinger Tuesday, offering all customers a 50% profit boost token to use on any “To Hit a Home Run” wager today, April 15th. Just remember there’s a maximum wager associated with the token, so log in and check the details when you claim it.

Here are my three home run picks for Dinger Tuesday today and how I’m eyeing that FanDuel boost.

Dinger Tuesday Pick: Trevor Story (+600 at FanDuel)

I’m locking in the FanDuel 50% boost on Trevor Story tonight. He gets Rays’ righty Ryan Pepiot again, and they’re playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. It’s a minor league park, but it’s one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the national, especially with the wind potentially being a factor.

Pepiot has had trouble keeping the ball in the park this season, giving up four home runs already, including three in his last outing. Right-handed hitters have done most of that damage, tagging him for three of those homers and a hefty .351 isolated power (ISO). Story, swinging a hot bat with three homers and a .304 average, fits the profile. He’s also taken Pepiot deep once before in their limited matchups, and his numbers against Pepiot’s main pitches (four-seam, changeup) look encouraging.

Trevor Story Stats vs Pepiot

Stat Category	Value
AB	2
Hits	1
HR	1
RBI	1
AVG	.500
OPS	2.500

Story’s recent play has been nothing short of impressive, hitting .379 over the last week with a .517 slugging percentage. Even more encouraging is his 14-day stretch where he’s batting .352 with a .556 slugging percentage and all three of his 2025 home runs. After injury-plagued seasons, his six stolen bases and improved slash line (.304/.324/.464) show he’s fully healthy again.

What makes Story particularly appealing today is his recent power surge, with all three homers in just 11 games. His 34% hard-hit rate provides enough pop for the ball to carry in Steinbrenner Field, creating ideal conditions against a pitcher who struggles with right-handed power.

Getting Story at +600 feels like a good number, and boosting those odds with the FanDuel promo makes it even more appealing.

Dinger Tuesday Prediction: Adolis Garcia (+460 at FanDuel)

Next up is Adolis García facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi at Globe Life Field. That park has ranked near the top in home runs allowed to right-handed hitters since 2023, playing right into García’s power. Kikuchi, meanwhile, has served up four homers this year – all to right-handed batters.

García actually has 2 home runs through 16 games this season, but the underlying metrics suggest more big flies are coming. His 94.3 mph exit velocity and impressive 13.6% barrel rate show he’s making quality contact, while his extreme 65.1% fly ball rate creates the perfect recipe for home runs. The Rangers slugger has been heating up lately, going 5-for-17 (.294) over the last week after snapping an 0-for-17 slump.

Adolis Garcia Advanced Stats

Stat Category	Value
Exit Velocity	94.3 mph
Barrel Rate	13.6%
Fly Ball %	65.1%
Expected SLG	.581
Home OPS 2025	.918

Globe Life Field has been kind to García this season, where he boasts a .918 OPS, and both of his homers have come. His expected slugging percentage of .581 suggests he’s been unlucky so far – positive regression could be imminent. Plus, he’s historically dominated Kikuchi, going 3-for-9 with two home runs in their previous matchups. Since the start of last season, García leads the Rangers with seven homers against southpaws.

With his recent improvement, strong home numbers, and completely reworked swing aimed at a 50-homer season, this feels like a prime spot for García to leave the yard tonight.

Dinger Tuesday Bet: Bryan Reynolds (+630 at FanDuel)

Rounding out my Dinger Tuesday predictions, I like the value on Bryan Reynolds tonight. While his season-long stats aren’t jumping off the page (.206 with just two homers), his recent form and tonight’s matchup at PNC Park make him a fantastic longshot home run bet.

Reynolds is riding a 4-game hitting streak, including a productive outing yesterday with 2 hits and 2 RBIs against these same Nationals. Over the past week, he’s batting .304 with a .522 slugging percentage and an .892 OPS, including one homer – signs that his power stroke is returning. His 91.9 mph exit velocity and expected slugging (.493) being much higher than his actual slugging (.373) suggest positive regression is due.

Bryan Reynolds with an RBI single to make it 2-0, Pirates

NECKLACES. pic.twitter.com/rHOlwKV2n8
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) April 14, 2025

The home/away split is particularly intriguing for Reynolds in 2025. He’s been 86% more productive at PNC Park with a stellar .928 OPS at home versus just .500 on the road. Both of his homers this season have come in Pittsburgh, and tonight he’ll be in his comfort zone against Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

Irvin has already surrendered four homers in just three starts, with concerning Statcast numbers that rank near the bottom of the league in barrel percentage and exit velocity allowed. Reynolds’ switch-hitting ability gives him an advantage against any pitcher, and at +630 odds, he offers excellent value for tonight’s Dinger Tuesday promotion.

Considering Irvin’s issues keeping the ball in the park, getting one of the Pirates’ best hitters at +630 odds offers some nice potential upside, whether you use the boost on him or play it straight.

Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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