NACSAR Food City 500 Predictions, Longshot Picks & Odds

• NASCAR Food City 500 takes the green flag this Sunday from the Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN
• Alex Bowman took down the pole, but will he hold off favorite Kyle Larson? 
• Below, see my NASCAR Food City 500 predictions, longshot picks, and odds

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls north up the East Coast for the ninth points event this Sunday, April 13th, at the NASCAR Food City 500. The green flag drops just after 3:00 pm ET, with live coverage once more on FS1 and the Fox Sports App.

Bristol is a short track that spans only 0.533 miles! Everything happens quickly. Laps go by every 15-16 seconds or so and sometimes faster. Now, the stage setup is 125-125-250. It is one of those races that can feature a lot of cautions. Projections are suggesting at least 10 or more. Last year featured nine.

The table below lists the Food City 500 odds (winner, top three, and top five) for the favorites and viable longshots. Under the table, I have set out my Food City 500 predictions and best longshot picks.

NASCAR Food City 500 Odds

At +285 odds, the implied probability for Kyle Larson to win stands at 25.97%. Denny Hamlin speeds in at 18.18%, with five others still at 9.09%. Larson is currently the +450 co-favorite alongside Christopher Bell in the NASCAR Cup Series odds.

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Odds as of Apr. 13 (post-qualifying) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the Food City 500. 

NASCAR Food City 500 Predictions

As usual, the weather works out Sunday with Mostly Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures around 65 degrees. Runs like this are rare in NASCAR. Take it and thank you on this Palm Sunday. By the way, the racers are off next week as per Easter tradition.

Qualifying brought out the fun as another Hendrick Motorsports car won the poke. Alex Bowman found a way to edge out Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin by 0.019 and 0.025 seconds. Surprisingly, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. turned in a lap that was good for second – just 0.013 seconds slower. Seven drivers broke the 15-second barrier on Saturday. I could feel the breeze from here.

Honestly, the race has been dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing lately with five of the last seven wins going to someone in their stable. It is noteworthy that the Spring race was on dirt from 2021-2023. Then again, guys like Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin can win almost anywhere.

The track features 24-28 degree banking on the turns and 4-8 degree banking on the straights. It feels like a high-shaped bowl at crazy speeds.

Maybe, there is a chance we get some great racing and a little less crashing.

Again, hopefully, Sunday will be a better day, as they say. Remember the 250 lap final stage. That allows for tight racing to sneak up on people. If Kyle Larson can stay out of the fray, he is going to win this race and complete the sweep after winning the Xfinity race on Sunday.

• NASCAR Food City 500 Prediction to Win: Kyle Larson (+285 at DraftKings)

NASCAR Longshots for Food City 500 at Bristol

Hey, I do race some cars and have been known to enjoy Las Vegas. Bristol can be a different animal and sometimes the unexpected does happen. Can Brad Keselowski find the magic or someone else a little unexpected? Could Kyle Busch (six-time winner) turn back the clock and snap that race drought? What about Tyler Reddick? Can he avoid Chase Briscoe this time?

Always take a look at a few possibilities like this when making bets on short tracks. With the likely higher amount of cautions, the chances the favorite makes it to the line first decreases.

Let us serve up a few more ideas. Can Ty Gibbs finally figure it out? At +1600, he is not a longshot quite like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at +2500. The problem with the Stenhouse Jr. car is the unknown. He had undeniable speed in practice and qualifying but can it be sustained? There is the temptation to take a look at RFK Racing and Chris Buescher. Buescher led 17 laps and finished 7th along with winning the 2022 Fall race. He has shown an ability to stay around the front. At +2800, he is worth a look.

How about Bubba Wallace at +3000 or Chase Briscoe at +3500? After all, Toyota cars do well here and Wallace has a Top 5 recently (+380). Wallace was running near the front before misfortune last March and Briscoe had that memorable duel with Tyler Reddick. Anything can happen late at Bristol and often does. Hopefully those betting wishes come true today!