Arsenal vs Real Madrid Odds, Picks, Predictions & Injury News – Trends Heavily Support a +115 Bet
By Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Published:
- Arsenal and Real Madrid meet in the first leg of their UCL quarterfinal on Tuesday in London
- Arsenal is a favorite to win on the three-way moneyline but is still in plus-money
- See the Arsenal vs Real Madrid odds, picks, and predictions for April 8
It’s only European heavyweights remaining at this stage of the competition, but the Arsenal vs Real Madrid UEFA Champions League quarterfinal still feels like it’s happening too early. Two of the UCL title favorites will meet in the first leg of their home-and-home quarterfinal on Tuesday at 3:00 pm ET at Emirates Stadium in north London.
The Arsenal vs Real Madrid odds slightly favor the home team, but oddsmakers give the defending-champion Spanish side a ton of respect.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Odds
The three-way moneyline favors Arsenal at a modest +105 odds. The draw is +250 with a Real Madrid victory at +265. Despite being home favorites on Tuesday, Arsenal is a +130 underdog to advance to the semifinals. Real Madrid is a -163 favorite to move on.
Real Madrid is currently the +300 third-favorite to win the 2025 Champions League title. Arsenal is the +700 fifth-favorite in the Champions League odds.
After getting a bye to the round of 16, Arsenal used a 7-1 away rout of PSV to advance 9-3 on aggregate. Eight different players scored for the Gunners across the two games. Kai Havertz (9 EPL goals, 4 UCL goals) and Bukayo Saka (6 EPL goals, 4 UCL goals), the team’s leaders in both domestic and Champions League goals this season, missed both games. Havertz is out again on Tuesday, but as noted below, Saka is projected to start.
Real Madrid has had a considerably tougher road. They didn’t finish in the top eight in the group stage and, thus, had to play in the round of 24, where they were matched up with Manchester City. They wound up breezing past the Citizens, 6-3 on aggregate, but then had to face intra-city rival Atletico Madrid in the round of 16. Both teams won by a goal on their home turn and Real needed a 4-2 edge on penalties to move on.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Lineups & Injury News
Both teams are dealing with litanies of injuries. For Arsenal, defenders Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, and Takehiro Tomiyasu are out, as are forwards Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling and Kai Havertz.
Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti will have to do without defenders Daniel Carvajal, Eder Militao, and Ferland Mendy, plus midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni and keeper Andriy Lunin, which forces a less-than-100% Thibaut Courtois into action.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction & Picks
- Over 2.5 goals (+115) at DraftKings
- Both teams to score (-122) at FanDuel
Sascha Paruk’s UCL betting record: 5-4 (+2.12 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Other than Arsenal’s 7-1 pounding of PSV in Eindhoven on March 4, the Gunners really haven’t been in great form over the last two months. In their last eight matches across all competitions, they’re just 3-4-1 and, if you take out the 7-1 thrashing of PSV, they only have a +1 goal differential in that span.
Madrid have had plenty of issues of their own, in large part due to the significant injuries on the back end. But what they’ve proven of late is that they can both score and concede at a solid clip.
Each of Madrid’s last four matches across all competitions has gone over 2.5 goals (along with seven of their last eight), with an average of 4.75 GPG in that four-game span.
Across all competitions, Arsenal has gone over 2.5 in just three of its last six. But if you look at only Champions League matches, Arsenal’s last six have all featured at least three goals and averaged 4.5 GPG. Both teams to score has also hit in three straight UCL matches for the Gunners and eight straight matches (all competitions) for Madrid.
All the trends point to over 2.5 being great value at +115. And I’m also targeting the BTTS at -122 odds.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
