Closing Duke vs Houston Odds & Score Projections – Sharp Money Shifts Line

• The final Duke vs Houston odds have seen late sharp money move towards the Cougars in Saturday’s Final Four matchup
• Duke’s spread has dropped from -5.5 to -4.5 despite public money favoring the Blue Devils
• See the closing Duke vs Houston odds (spread, total, and moneyline) plus public-betting splits and score projections

The #1 Houston Cougars (34-4, 20-18 ATS) look to pull off an upset against the #1 Duke Blue Devils (35-3, 25-13 ATS) in a heavyweight Final Four showdown at the Alamodome in San Antonio on Saturday at 8:49 pm ET on CBS.

While the Blue Devils have been dominant throughout the tournament, the final Duke vs Houston odds show late sharp money moving toward the Cougars.

Final Duke vs Houston Odds

Duke’s spread has dropped from an opening line of -5.5 to -4.5, indicating significant sharp action on Houston despite the Blue Devils still carrying a 71.4% implied win probability. The Cougars’ odds to advance at +200 carry a 33.3% implied win probability.

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Odds as of April 5 at BetMGM. Get the best March Madness betting promos for the Final Four today.

The total has held steady at 136.5 points, reflecting the defensive prowess of both teams. According to the current spread and total, oddsmakers are projecting a 71-66 Duke victory, though advanced analytics suggest a much closer contest.

This high-stakes matchup is a rematch of last year’s Sweet 16 contest, where Duke edged Houston 54-51 in a defensive slugfest. Both teams enter this showdown riding impressive winning streaks, with Houston having won 17 straight games and Duke on a 15-game tear of their own.

Duke vs Houston Score Projection

The analytical projections paint an interesting picture, with each of the three major models predicting a razor-thin margin regardless of winner. KenPom and Haslam both give Duke a slight edge, while Torvik actually favors Houston by a single point. This stands in stark contrast to the 4.5-point spread, indicating value on the Cougars.

The clash features the nation’s most efficient offense against the country’s top defense. Duke has been an offensive juggernaut throughout the tournament, averaging a staggering 91.8 points per game in their four NCAA Tournament wins. Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG) leads the Blue Devils’ attack alongside fellow freshman standouts Kon Knueppel and 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach.

Houston counters with their trademark suffocating defense, holding opponents to a nation-best 57.9 points per game. The veteran-laden Cougars are anchored by guard LJ Cryer (15.6 PPG) and forward J’Wan Roberts, who provide both scoring punch and the experience of previous Final Four runs.

While Houston’s offense ranks outside the top 130 nationally in scoring, they lead the country in three-point shooting percentage at a scorching 42.1%.

Duke vs Houston Public Betting Splits

The betting public is overwhelmingly backing Duke on the moneyline, with a staggering 90% of bets and 88% of handle taking the Blue Devils to advance. Against the spread, Duke is also the popular choice, receiving 64% of bets, though the handle percentage is much closer at just 53% – another indicator of sharp money leaning toward Houston.

Contrary to the defensive reputation of both teams, bettors are expecting a relatively high-scoring affair. The over has attracted 83% of total bets and 82% of handle, suggesting public confidence that these two offenses will find success. This stands in stark contrast to last year’s Sweet 16 matchup between these programs that finished with just 105 total points.

The sharp money trend is particularly noteworthy, as professional bettors appear to be finding value on Houston. The line movement from Duke -5.5 to -4.5 despite the heavy public support for the Blue Devils suggests respected money is coming in on the Cougars. This aligns with the analytical projections that indicate a much closer game than the current spread suggests.

Both teams have been excellent against the spread this season, with Duke covering at a 25-13 clip (65.8%) and Houston at 20-18 (52.6%). Duke has been particularly strong as a favorite, going 22-12 ATS when laying points, while Houston has covered in their only game as an underdog this season.

The winner advances to Monday’s national championship game against either Florida or Auburn from the other Final Four matchup. Duke seeks their sixth national title and first since 2015, while Houston is hunting for their first-ever championship after runner-up finishes in 1983 and 1984.